第二章 死亡艇和救生艇

1.Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States：Harry S.Truman，1950（Washington：Government Printing Office，1965），p.727.

2.参见他关于德累斯顿轰炸的经典小说Slaughterbouse-Five（New York：Delacorte Press，1969）.

3.这些数据来自the Britannica Online entry on the Korean War.

4.Bernard Brodie，“War in the Atomic Age，”in Brodie，ed.，The Absolute Weapon：Atomic Power and World Order（New York：Harcourt，1946），pp.33-34.

5.Thucydides，History of the Peloponnesian War，translated by Rex Warner（New York：Penguin，1972），p.48.没有人知道有多少人在波罗奔尼撒战争中死亡，但是我的耶鲁同事、研究波罗奔尼撒战争最杰出历史学家唐纳德·卡根统计出了这个大概的死亡人数。第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战的死亡人数来自Britannica Online.

6.Carl von Clausewitz，On War，edited and translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret（Princeton：Princeton University Press，1976），p.87.

7.See Kai Bird and Martin J.Sherwin，American Prometheus：The Triumph and Tragedy of J.Robert Oppenheimer（New York：Knopf，2005），pp.221-22.

8.Diary entries，July 16，1945，and September 26，1946，in Robert H.Ferrell，ed.，Off the Record：The Private Papers of Harry S.Truman（New York：Harper & Row，1980），pp.52，99.在回顾杜鲁门对核武器看法的变化时，我特别参考了S.David Broscious，“Longing for International Control，Banking on American Superiority：Harry S.Truman’s Approach to Nuclear Weapons，”in John Lewis Gaddis，Philip H.Gordon，Ernest R.May，and Jonathan Rosenberg，eds.，Cold War Statesmen Confront the Bomb：Nuclear Diplomacy since 1945（New York：Oxford University Press，1999），pp.15-38.

9.David E.Lilienthal journal，July 21，1948，in The Journals of David E.Lilienthal：The Atomic Energy Years，1945-1950（New York：Harper & Row，1964），p.391.

10.内战的死亡人数来自Britannica Online.关于索姆河战役，参见John Keegan，The Face of Battle：A Study of Agincourt，Waterloo，and the Somme（New York：Viking，1976），p.260.关于第二次世界大战中的战略轰炸，参见Richard Overy，Why the Allies Won（New York：Norton，1996），pp.101-33.

11.James V.Forrestal diary，July 15，1948，in Walter Millis，ed.，The Forrestal Diaries（New York：Viking，1951），p.458.

12.Vladislav M.Zubok，“Stalin and the Nuclear Age，”in Gaddis，et al.，eds.，Cold War Statesmen Confront the Bomb，p.54.

13.Lilienthal journal，February 9，1949，in The Journals of David E.Lilienthal：The Atomic Energy Years，p.464.

14.Lilienthal journal，May 18，1948，in ibid.，p.342.See also Zubok，“Stalin and the Nuclear Age，”p.52.

15.Milovan Djilas，Conversations with Stalin，translated by Michael B.Petrovich（New York：Harcourt，Brace & World，1962），p.153.

16.Zubok，“Stalin and the Nuclear Age，”p.55；John Lewis Gaddis，The Long Peace：Inquiries into the History of the Cold War（New York：Oxford University Press，1987），pp.111-12.关于苏联原子弹工程的花费，参见David Holloway，Stalin and the Bomb：The Soviet Union and Atomic Energy，1939-1956（New Haven：Yale University Press，1994），pp.172-95.

17.John Lewis Gaddis，We Now Know：Rethinking Cold War History（New York：Oxford University Press，1997），p.91；Zubok，“Stalin and the Nuclear Age，”p.58.

18.Sergei N.Goncharov，John W.Lewis，and XueLitai，Uncertain Partners：Stalin，Mao，and the Korean War（Stanford：Stanford University Press，1993），p.69.

19.The interview，with Alexander Werth，appeared in Pravda on September 25，1946.

20.Holloway，Stalin and the Bomb，p.264.

21.这些引文分别来自Zubok，“Stalin and the Nuclear Age，”p.56，and Simon Sebag Montefiore，Stalin：The Court of the Red Tsar（New York：Knopf，2004），p.601.

22.“NRDC Nuclear Notebook：Global Nuclear Stockpiles 1945-2002，”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists，58（November/December，2002），102-3，also available at：http：//www.thebulletin.org/issues/nukenotes/ndo2nukenote.html.

23.有关这个问题的进一步论述，参见Gaddis，The Long Peace，p.116.

24.William Stueck，Rethinking the Korean War：A New Diplomatic and Military History（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2002），p.124.See also Roger Dingman，“Atomic Diplomacy During the Korean War，”International Security，13（Winter，1988/89），50-91.

25.See above，p.45.

26.Stalin to Mao，June 5，1951，Cold War International History Project［hereafter CWIHP］Bulletin，#6-7（Winter，1995/96），59.关于这些事件来龙去脉的详细描述，参见Gaddis，We Now Know，pp.103-10.

27.有关苏联在朝鲜战争中的军事卷入的更多信息，可登陆http：//www.korean-war.com/ussr.html.

28.Bird and Sherwin，American Prometheus，pp.416-30；George F.Kennan，Memoirs：1925-1950（Boston：Atlantic-Little Brown，1967），pp.471-76.

29.Gaddis，The Long Peace，p.113.See also Gaddis，We Now Know，pp.230-32.

30.George Cowan and N.A.Vlasov，quoted in ibid.，p.224.

31.Andrew P.N.Erdmann，“‘War No Longer Has Any Logic Whatever’：Dwight D.Eisenhower and the Thermonuclear Revolution，”in Gaddis，et al.，eds.，Cold War Statesmen Confront the Bomb，p.101.

32.Andrew P.N.Erdmann，“‘War No Longer Has Any Logic Whatever’：Dwight D.Eisenhower and the Thermonuclear Revolution，”in Gaddis，et al.，eds.，Cold War Statesmen Confront the Bomb，p.101.

33.Holloway，Stalin and the Bomb，pp.336-37.

34.Gaddis，The Long Peace，p.109.

35.Jonathan Rosenberg，“Before the Bomb and After：Winston Churchill and the Use of Force，”in Gaddis，et al.，eds.，Cold war Statesmen Confront the Bomb，p.191.

36.James C.Hagerty diary，July 27，1954，in FRUS：1952-54，XV，1844-45.

37.Erdmann，“Eisenhower and the Thermonuclear Revolution，”pp.106-7，113.

38.Erdmann，“Eisenhower and the Thermonuclear Revolution，”p.109.

39.影响我的观点的书有Campbell Craig，Destroying the Village：Eisenhower and Thermonuclear War（New York：Columbia University Press，1999），especially pp.67-70.

40.William Taubman，Khrushchev：The Man and His Era（New York：Norton，2003），pp.147-78.

41.Nikita S.Khrushchev，Khrushchev Remembers：The Last Testament，translated and edited by Strobe Talbott（Boston：Little，Brown，1974），p.47；James G.Blight，Bruce J.Allyn，and David A.Welch，Cuba on the Brink：Castro，the Missile Crisis，and the Soviet Collapse（New York：Pantheon，1993），p.130.关于这一时期苏联拥有的轰炸机和导弹数量，参见Stephen J.Zaloga，The Kremlin’s Nuclear Sword：The Rise and Fall of Russia’s Strategic Nuclear Forces，1945-2000（Washington：Smithsonian Institution，2002），pp.22-59.

42.有关这一问题的进一步讨论，参见Gaddis，We Now Know，pp.234-39；also Sergei Khrushchev，Khrushchev on Khrushchev：An Inside Account of the Man and His Era，edited and translated by William Taubman（Boston：Little，Brown，1990），p.56.

43.Taubman，Khrushchev，p.407.

44.McGeorge Bundy，Danger and Survival：Choices About the Bomb in the First Fifty Years（New York：Random House，1988），p.331.

45.Hope M.Harrison，Driving the Soviets Up the Wall：Soviet-East German Relations，1953-1961（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2003），pp.111-12；Khrushchev，Khrushchev Remembers：The Last Testament，p.501；Taubman，Khrushchev，p.407；Dean Rusk，as told to Richard Rusk，As I Saw It（New York：Norton 1990），p.227.

46.Sergei Khrushchev，Khrushchev on Khrushchev，p.356.Emphasis in original.

47.有关赫鲁晓夫访美的最精彩描述，参见Taubman，Khrushchev，pp.419-41.

48.John Ranelagh，The Agency：The Rise and Decline of the CIA（New York：Simon and Schuster，1986），pp.149-59.

49.Andrew Goodpaster interview，CNN Cold War，Episode 8，“Sputnik，1949-61.”

50.Michael R.Beschloss，Mayday：Eisenbower，Khrushchev and the U-2 Affair（New York：Harper & Row，1986），pp121-22.

51.Zaloga，The Kremlin’s Nuclear Sword，pp.49-50.

52.Taubman，Khrushchev，p.444.

53.Taubman，Khrushchev，p.460.

54.Deputy Secretary of Defense Roswell Gilpatric，quoted in Gaddis，We Now Know，p.256.

55.Taubman，Khrushchev，p.536.

56.AleksandrFursenko and Timothy Naftali，“One Hell of a Gamble”：Khrushchev，Castro，and Kennedy，1958-1964（New York：Norton，1997），p171.See also Taubman，Khrushchev，pp.536-37.

57.Fursenko and Naftali，“One Hell of a gamble，”p.39.

58.Nikita S.Khrushchev，Khrushchev Remembers，translated and edited by Strobe Talbott（New York：Bantam，1971），p.546.

59.Taubman，Khrushchev，p537.

60.See the transcripts of conversations between American and Soviet veterans of the crisis in Blight，Allyn，and Welch，Cuba on the Brink；and in James G.Blight and David A.Welch，On the Brink，Ameicansans Soviets Reexamine the Cuban Missile Crisis（New York：Hill and Wang，1989）.

61.Kennedy meeting with advisers，October 22，1962，in Ernest R.May and Philip D.Zelikow，eds.，The Kennedy Tapes：Inside the White House during the Cuban Missile Crisis（Cambridge，Massachusetts：Harvard University Press，1997），p.235.

62.Taubman，Khrushchev，p552.

63.Blight，Allyn，and Welch，Cuba on the Brink，p.259.

64.Blight，Allyn，and Welch，Cuba on the Brink，p.203.

65.Gaddis，We Now Know，p.262；“NRDC Nuclear Notebook：Global Nuclear Stockpiles，1945-2002，”p.104.

66.Blight，Allyn，and Welch，Cuba on the Brink，p.360.

67.Lawrence Freedman，The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy（New York：St.Martin’s Press，1983），p.235.

68.Lawrence Freedman，The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy（New York：St.Martin’s Press，1983），p.238.

69.CNN Cold War，Episode 10，“Cuba：1959-1962.”

70.Bundy，Danger and Survival，pp.543-48.

71.有关这一问题的进一步论述，参见Gaddis，The Long Peace，pp.195-214.

72.Yann Martel，Life of Pi（New York：Harcourt，2002）.