作者中文版序

统计学作为一种解决问题的方法已经传授了几百年。在最初的几个世纪，统计学只是一套数学法则，用于确定某些事情发生的可能性。其中绝大部分法则都是具有数学天赋的人为了赌钱时稳赚不赔而想出来的。有时候，他们会与别人分享自己的发现，估计那时候他们的钱已经多得花不完，得考虑捐给慈善机构了。在最近大约150 年，统计学的范畴不断扩充，已经包括了根据样本数据准确推断总体数据特征的方法。使用样本来描述整体属于推论统计学的范畴。推论统计学是统计学花园中绝美的花朵。

统计学的发展日新月异。目前统计学的主要应用是解决日常生活中的难题。市面上的统计学参考书虽然也致力于解决这些难题，比如推论统计学如何检验假设，如何回答研究问题，但很少探讨如何更有趣、更好玩地运用统计学。我希望通过本书改变这一现状。

本书由很多Hack 组成。每个Hack 都会用一种聪明的方法解决一个有意思的问题。这些问题涉及如何用统计学来回答日常难题、赢得比赛、赢到钱（向500 年前的先辈们致敬），我会把自己能想到的所有方法毫无保留地教给你。此外，本书也涉及指导研究的传统统计学方法，你会看到有关检验和多次回归的Hack，掌握了本书的技艺后，你就能在扑克牌游戏中获胜，破解秘密数据，比超人更加聪明。你还能学会自己解决遇到的问题。比如，“8 是你的幸运数字吗？”“裸婚能收获幸福的概率有多大？”设计你自己的Hack 来揭开这些问题的谜底吧！

希望本书能给你带来愉悦的体验！祝你好运！

Bruce Frey 博士

2014 年3 月

Preface for Chinese Edition of Statistics Hacks

Statistics has been taught as a way of solving problems for many 100's of years. For the first few centuries of the field, statistics was simply a set of mathematical rules for determining the likelihood of something happening. Most of those rules were developed by smart mathematicians who wanted to makemoney gambling. Occasionally they would share their discoveries with others, perhaps when they were wealthy enough to give to charity. For the last 150 years or so, statistics has expanded to include methods of using a small sample of information to make fairly accurate guesses about a larger body of information.Using a sample to describe the larger population it represents is inferential statistics. And inferential statistics is the beauty of statistics.

Another more recent change is occurring in the field of statistics. The focus now is to apply statistics to everyday problems. While textbooks have long included many applied problems as examples of how inferential statistics can test hypotheses and answer research questions, few discuss the more interesting and fun ways to use statistics! I hope to change that with this book.

This book is full of different “hacks”. A hack is a clever way to solve an interesting problem. I've included all the ways I can think of to use statistics to answer everyday problems, to win games, and (in honor of our ancestors from 500 years ago) to win money. Oh, there are a few traditional discussions of statistical ways to conduct research and you'll see hacks about t tests and multiple regression (whatever those are), but you'll also find out how to win at poker, decode secret messages, and how to be smarter than Superman. And you'll develop skills to answer your own interesting problems. Is 8 your lucky number? What are the chances that a marriage that started with a "naked" wedding will be successful? Find out by designing your own hacks!

I hope you'll enjoy this book! Best wishes!

Bruce Frey, Ph.D. March, 2014