517-i

    在此，我向斯蒂尔道歉，为了更间接地解释，我在此省略了换算百分比的其他步骤。

    229 等待完成任务获得积极反馈：来源于方程1， Steel, P., & König, C. J. (2006). Integrating theories of motivation. Academy of Management Review, 31(4), 889–913. 拖延经常表示为 T-t。T代表现在得到的奖励值，t代表未来得到的相同的奖励值。

    229 很难开始启动某个任务：Rabin, L. A., Fogel, J., & Nutter-Upham, K. E. (2011). Academic procrastination in college students: The role of self-reported executive function. Journal of Clinical and Experimental Neuropsychology, 33(3), 344–357.

    230 源于缺乏计划：几乎直接引自Rabin, L. A., Fogel, J., & Nutter-Upham, K. E. (2011). Academic procrastination in college students: The role of self-reported executive function. Journal of Clinical and Experimental Neuropsychology, 33(3), 344–357.

    230 减少这种类型的拖延症：Schouwenburg, H. C., & Lay, C. H. (1995). Trait procrastination and the Big Five factors of personality. Personality and Individual Differences, 18(4), 481–490.

    231 更多我们想不到的失败：Plimpton, G. (1995). The X factor: A quest for excellence. New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Company.

    231 背外侧前额叶皮层和眶皮层：Beer, J. S., John, O. P., Scabini, D., & Knight, R. T. (2006). Orbitofrontal cortex and social behavior: Integrating self-monitoring and emotion-cognition interactions. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 18(6), 871–879.

    Luu, P., Collins, P., & Tucker, D. M. (2000). Mood, personality, and self-monitoring: Negative affect and emotionality in relation to frontal lobe mechanisms of error monitoring. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 129(1), 43–60, p. 43.

    Passingham, R. E., Bengtsson, S. L., & Lau, H. C. (2010). Medial frontal cortex: From self-generated action to reflection on one’s own performance. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 14(1), 16–21.

    231 想法不够好的自我评价：Limb, C. J., & Braun, A. R. (2008). Neural substrates of spontaneous musical performance: An fMRI study of jazz improvisation. PLoS One, 3(2), e1679.

    231 尴尬与沮丧： 引自 Freeman, W., & Watts, J. W. (1939). An interpretation of the functions of the frontal lobe: Based upon observations in forty-eight cases of prefrontal lobotomy. The Yale Journal of Biology and Medicine, 11(5), 527–539, p. 527.

    232 有许多著名的失败：Rolling Stone. (n. d.). The many business failures of Donald Trump. 摘自 http:// www. rollingstone. com。

    232 特朗普抵押公司，四次破产：Donald Trump’s companies filed for bankruptcy 4 times [Video file]. (2011, April 21). ABC News. 摘自 http:// abc news. go. com/ Politics/ donald-trump-filed-bankruptcy-times/ story? id= 13419250。

    232 全面心理障碍：Ronningstam, E. F. (2005). Identifying and understanding the narcissistic personality. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.

    232 可以放入以下单个单词中成为：Jung-Beeman, M., Bowden, E. M., Haberman, J., Frymiare, J. L., Arambel-Liu, S., Greenblatt, R., . . . Kounios, J. (2004). Neural activity when people solve verbal problems with insight. PLoS Biology, 2(4), e97.

    233 答案是：答案是apple（苹果）。

    233 “我希望你能告诉我，我的一生到底有多少价值”：Friend, R., Lerner, G., & Foster, D. (Writers). (2012). House: Holding on, Season 8, Episode 22.

    234 精度不如左脑，但更擅长不同事物之间的连接：Jung-Beeman, M. (2008). Quoted in J. Lehrer (2008, July 28). The eureka hunt. The New Yorker, 40–45.

    234 大脑会产生大量伽马波：Fleck, J. I., Green, D. L., Stevenson, J. L., Payne, L., Bowden, E. M., Jung-Beeman, M., & Kounios, J. (2008). The transliminal brain at rest: Baseline EEG, unusual experiences, and access to unconscious mental activity. Cortex, 44(10), 1353–1363.

    234发生在温暖的热水澡时间：放松阶段尤其重要。这就是为什么洗热水澡的时候能够产生如此多的灵感的原因。摘自 Jung-Beeman, M. . Quoted in Lehrer J. (2008, July 28). The eureka hunt. The New Yorker, 40–45.

    234 大脑的恐惧中心杏仁核：Bengtsson, S. L., Csíkszentmihályi, M., & Ullén, F. (2007). Cortical regions involved in the generation of musical structures during improvisation in pianists. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 19(5), 830–842.

    Ulrich, M., Keller, J., Hoenig, K., Waller, C., & Grön, G. (2014). Neural correlates of experimentally induced flow experiences. NeuroImage, 86, 194–202.

    234 探索浩瀚的宇宙：在这一节中，我意译和借鉴了与Csikszentmihalyi交谈的很多内容。我们共同出席了2007年3月6日在斯坦福大学医学院举办的一次论坛。

    235 “我没有感觉到自己在创作曲子……”：Omaha, N. E., 个人交流，2010年9月15日以及1991年1月。这些谈话的后半部分出版在了Levitin, D. J. (1991). Rosanne Cash. Recording-Engineering-Production, 22(2), 18–19。

    235 “我张开嘴歌唱……”： Huxley, P.,个人交流，2013年5月25日，华盛顿州。

    238 大脑以下区域：Seamans, J. K., & Yang, C. R. (2004). The principal features and mechanisms of dopamine modulation in the prefrontal cortex. Progress in Neurobiology, 74(1), 1–58.

    Ullén, F., de Manzano, Ö., Almeida, R., Magnusson, P. K. E., Pedersen, N. L., Nakamura, J., . . . Madison, G. (2012). Proneness for psychological flow in everyday life: Associations with personality and intelligence. Personality and Individual Differences, 52(2), 167–172.

    238 自由访问意识流联想：Boulougouris, V., & Tsaltas, E. (2008). Serotonergic and dopaminergic modulation of attentional processes. Progress in Brain Research, 172, 517–542.

    239 破坏对手的心流系统：Dietrich, A. (2004). Neurocognitive mechanisms underlying the experience of flow. Consciousness and Cognition, 13(4), 746–761.

    240 这就是创作的代价： Young, N., 个人交流，1981年6月，1984年4月，加拿大伍德赛德。

    240 为了创作：Wonder, S., 个人交流，1995年4月，伯班克，加拿大。部分谈话出版在了Levitin, D. J. . Conversation in the key of life: Stevie Wonder. Grammy Magazine, 14(3), 14–25.

    240 让他拥有最大化的自由：Sting，个人交流，2007年9月27日，巴塞罗那，西班牙。

    241 拖延症患者很少什么也不做：Perry, J. (2012). The art of procrastination: A guide to effective dawdling, lollygagging and postponing. New York, NY: Workman Publishing Company.

    241 每当完成一部作品时： Tierney, J. (2013, January 15). This was supposed to be my column for New Year’s Day. The New York Times, p. D3.

    241 鱼因为鱼饵而上钩：几乎直接摘自 Kubey, R., & Csikszentmihalyi, M. (2002, February). Television addiction is no mere metaphor. Scientific American, 48–55.

    243 前额叶皮层内的中央执行系统： Grafman, J. (1989). Plans, actions and mental sets: Managerial knowledge units in the frontal lobes. In E. Perecman (Ed.), Integrating Theory and Practice in Clinical Neuropsychology (pp. 93–138). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

    243 最新的、最吵闹的信息：The Freelancers’ Show (Producer). (2013, August 8). The Freelancers’ Show 073—Book club: Getting things done with David Allen [Audio podcast]. 摘自 http:// www. freelancersshow. com/ the-freelancers -show-073-book-club-getting-things-done-with-david-allen/。

    243 慢性疾病和过早死亡：Warburton, D. E., Nicol, C. W., & Bredin, S. S. (2006). Health benefits of physical activity: The evidence. Canadian Medical Association Journal, 174(6), 801–809.

    243 抵御某些类型的癌症：Friedenreich, C. M. (2001). Physical activity and cancer prevention from observational to intervention research. Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention, 10(4), 287–301.

    Friedenreich, C. M., & Orenstein, M. R. (2002). Physical activity and cancer prevention: Etiologic evidence and biological mechanisms. The Journal of Nutrition, 132(11), 3456S–3464S.

    243 每周5天……也能够取得良好的效果：Bassuk, S. S., Church, T. S., & Manson, J. E. (2013, August). Why exercise works magic. Scientific American, 74–79.

    World Health Organization. (n. d.). Global recommendations on physical activity for health. 摘自 http:// www. who. int/ dietphysicalactivity/ fact sheet_ recommendations/ en/。

    Erickson, K. I., Voss, M. W., Prakash, R. S., Basak, C., Szabo, A., Chaddock, L., . . . Kramer, A. F. (2011). Exercise training increases size of hippocampus and improves memory. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(7), 3017–3022.

    244 增加大脑中的血液流动： Pereira A. C., Huddleston, D. E., Brickman, A. M., Sosunov, A. A., Hen, R., McKhann, G. M., . . . Small, S. M. (2007). An in vivo correlate of exercise-induced neurogenesis in the adult dentate gyrus. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(13), 5638–5643.

    244 增大前额叶皮层尺寸：Colcombe, S. J., Erickson, K. I., Scalf, P. E., Kim, J. S., Prakash, R., McAuley, E., . . . Kramer, A. F. (2006). Aerobic exercise training increases brain volume in aging humans. The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, 61(11), 1166–1170.

    Hillman, C. H., Erickson, K. I., & Kramer, A. F. (2008). Be smart, exercise your heart: Exercise effects on brain and cognition. Nature Reviews Neuroscience, 9(1), 58–65.

    244 记忆能力与批判性思维能力：Colcombe S. J., Kramer, A. F., Erickson, K. I., Scalf, P., McAuley, E. Cohen, N. J., . . . Elavsky, S. (2004). Cardiovascular fitness, cortical plasticity, and aging. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101(9), 3316–3321.

    246 “……本身就只值10分钟时间”：Lavin, D., 个人交流，2012年10月23日。

    246 一家《财富》100强、市值200亿美元公司： 这一数值为定值美元。根据美国统计局，1988年的时候，该公司的营业额为1000万，这相当于2013年时的200亿美元。最新统计数据还可参见United States Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. (n. d.). Databases, tables & calculators by subject, CPI inflation calculator. 摘自 http:// www . bls. gov/ data/ inflation_ calculator. htm。

    247 待办事项：琳达，个人交流，2009年11月6日。

    249 比年轻的时候：Fraisse, P. (1963). The psychology of time. New York, NY: Harper & Row.Walker, J. L. (1977). Time estimation and total subjective time. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 44(2), 527–532.

    249 10岁儿童感知的一年时间比40岁成年人：Walker, J. L. (1977). Time estimation and total subjective time. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 44(2), 527–532.

    S=(A1/A2)1/ 2中，S等于主观时间段，A等于受访者年龄。

    249 神经传输速度的减慢： Block, R. A., Zakay, D., & Hancock, P. A. (1998). Human aging and duration judgments: A meta-analytic review. Psychology and Aging, 13(4), 584–596, p. 584.

    McAuley, J. D., Jones, M. R., Holub, S., Johnston, H. M., & Miller, N. S. （2006). The time of our lives: Life span development of timing and event tracking. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 135(3), 348.

    250 花时间与亲人和朋友在一起：这两句摘自: Carstensen, L. L. (2006). The influence of a sense of time on human development. Science, 312(5782), 1913–1915.

    250 会更像老年人一样看待生活：Carstensen, L. L., & Fredrickson, B. L. (1998). Influence of HIV status and age on cognitive representations of others. Health Psychology, 17(6), 494–503, p. 494.

    Fung, H. H., & Carstensen, L. L. (2006). Goals change when life’s fragility is primed: Lessons learned from older adults, the September 11 attacks and SARS. Social Cognition, 24(3), 248–278.

    250 煎饼或卡纳蕾油封鸭腿：Wansink, B., Kniffin, K. M., & Shimizu, M. (2012). Death row nutrition: Curious conclusions of last meals. Appetite, 59(3), 837–843.

    250 年轻人却有着相反的选择：Mather, M., & Carstensen, L. L. (2005). Aging and motivated cognition: The positivity effect in attention and memory. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 9(10), 496–502.

    250 积极偏见也体现在大脑扫描中：Carstensen, L. L. (2006). The influence of a sense of time on human development. Science, 312(5782), 1913–1915.

    251 防止阿尔茨海默症：Furst, A. J., Rabinovici, G. D., Rostomian, A. H., Steed, T., Alkalay, A., Racine, C., . . . Jagust, W. J. (2012). Cognition, glucose metabolism and amyloid burden in Alzheimer’s disease. Neurobiology of Aging, 33(2), 215–225.

    Jagust, W. J., & Mormino, E. C. (2011). Lifespan brain activity, β-amyloid, and Alzheimer’s disease. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 15(11), 520–526.

    251 “……也许更重要”：“这与生活习惯模式有关”出自加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校神经学家威廉姆·亚古斯特。“在痴呆症方面，我们倾向于关注75岁的老人。但更多的证据显示，你四五十岁时的习惯也许更重要。”

    引自Grady, D. (2012, March 8). Exercising an aging brain. The New York Times, p. F6.

    251 一生中拥有很长的社交历史也可以防止患上阿尔茨海默症：Seeman, T. E., Miller-Martinez, D. M., Merkin, S. S., Lachman, M. E., Tun, P. A., & Karlamangla, A. S. (2011). Histories of social engagement and adult cognition: Midlife in the US study. The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, 66(Suppl. 1), i141–i152.

    252 创造力，也需要一定的运气：Campbell, D. T. (1960). Blind variation and selective retentions in creative thought as in other knowledge processes. Psychological Review, 67(6), 380–400, p. 380.

    第6章

    253 “我桌面上的所有事情都是棘手的”：Lewis, M. (2012, September 5). Barack Obama to Michael Lewis on a presidential loss of freedom: “You don’t get used to it— at least, I don’t.” Vanity Fair.

    254 “我只需要在这两个负面影响中选择一个……”：Wynn, S., 个人交流，2010年8月1日。

    256 最好的治疗方案也存在多种不确定性：Gerstein, L.（医学博士），个人交流，2013年4月9日。

    258 生男孩的概率：生男生女的准确比例，这一问题并没有看上去那么简单。我们需要弄明白是不是只对出生率感兴趣；我们是不是只观察了医院出生率或者全部的出生率；我们是否将双胞胎计算在内。根据这些因素以及父母的种族、国家的不同等，这其中存在多种变化。这个比例很接近50∶50，但这并不是确切的数字。

    258 90%的可能性：有时，为了完整性，我们会听到这样的表述“有9成的概率，我会参加苏珊的聚会”。这种表述其实是基于一种计算。例如，我的车放在维修厂，它要么需要一个新的燃料喷射器，要么需要阀门的检修。如果仅仅是需要新的燃料喷射器，他们可以在周五之前修好我的车——我还来得及参加聚会——但是如果是大检修，他们还需要一周的时间拆出引擎，拿到汽车修理厂。现在，我的机械师告诉我，从我的汽车的里程数来看，有9成的概率是因为燃料喷射器坏了，有1成的概率需要大检修。现在，我的参加苏珊聚会的言论——通常只是对自信的一种预测，而不是一种严格的可能性——这仅仅是基于一种实际的可能性的计算，汽车需要新的燃料喷射器。确切来说，应该是“我希望我能去，但根据我的机械师说的，有1成的概率我的汽车今天不能修好，这样的话，我就去不了了。”这样说的话就会很啰嗦，但这样就明白了，我的可能性不是一种估算，而是一种事件概率计算。

    259 “有10%的概率，某个野蛮的国家……”：我对10%的估算持积极的态度。2006年，乔治外交学院院长罗伯特·加卢奇估计，“很有可能基地组织或其附属机构会在5~10年内，在美国城市引爆核武器。”这里的“很有可能”指的是一个大于50%的机会。摘自Kittrie, O. F. (2007). Averting catastrophe: Why the nuclear nonproliferation treaty is losing its deterrence capacity and how to restore it. Michigan Journal of International Law, 28, 337–430, p. 342.

    260 亿分之一：National Weather Service. (n. d.). How dangerous is lightning? 摘自 http:// www. lightningsafety. noaa. gov。

    260 被雷电两次击中：(n. a.). (2011, May 2). How lucky can you get! Incredible story of how man survives being hit by lightning TWICE in remarkable CCTV footage. Daily Mail.

    Campbell, K. (2000). Guinness World Records 2001. New York, NY: Guinness World Records Ltd., p. 36.

    260 布兰克航空公司的航班已经发生过空难：这段话出自我自己的作品，但我随后发现这跟哈金的一本书里的情节很像。Hacking, I. (2001). An introduction to probability and inductive logic. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, p. 31.

    262 概率是相等的：这是其中一种情况——我们的直觉——进行错误的推理。连续10次得到字，第11次得到花的概率，与连续10次得到字，第11、12次都得到花的概率是一样的。这两个序列都是非常不可能的，但是当你已经连续10次得到字，第11次的结果仍然是50∶50，硬币仍然可以朝向任意一面。花还是可能出现。它们不需要为了平衡序列而出现。

    262 几乎没人写下连续7次相同面的序列：Hacking, I. (2001). An introduction to probability and inductive logic. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, p. 31.

    262 抛掷14次就能够得到连续3次字： Ginsparg, P. (2005). How many coin flips on average does it take to get n consecutive heads? 摘自 https:// www.cs.cornell.edu/~ginsparg/physics/INFO295/mh.pdf

    262 如果我们抛掷100次硬币，至少出现一组连续3次字的概率将超过99. 9%：N次翻转中至少一次连续得到三个字的概率为：

    1– (1.236839844 / 1.087378025^(N+1))

    当N=100时，概率为 0.9997382。

    Weisstein, E. W. (n. d.). Run. 摘自 http:// mathworld. wolfram . com/ Run. html。

    262 (剩下的所有的牌都是A)：Mosteller, F., Rourke, R. E. K., & Thomas, G. B. (1961). Probability and statistics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, p. 17.

    263 不要忘记基础概率：Gerstein, L. (M. D.), 个人交流，2013年4月9日。

    263 全美一共有85万名医生 Young, A., Chaudhry, H. J., Rhyne, J., & Dugan, M. (2011). A census of actively licensed physicians in the United States, 2010. Journal of Medical Regulation, 96(4), 10–20.

    263 但仅仅只有15位内阁成员：白宫. (n. d.). 内阁. 摘自 http:// www. whitehouse. gov/ adminis-tration/ cabinet。

    加上副总统，一共有6位内阁成员。

    263 内阁成员中有16位医生：Manning, J. E. (2010). Membership of the 111th Congress: A Profile. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service Publication https://www.senate.gov/CRSReports/crs-publish.cfm?pid=%260BL%29PL%3B%3D%0A_7-5700

    268 四格表（也称为情形分析表） ：Bishop, Y. M., Fienberg, S. E., & Holland, P. W. (1975). Discrete multivariate analysis: Theory and practice. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

    Wickens, T. D. (1989). Multiway contingency tables analysis for the social sciences. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc.

    270 治愈模糊症的名为chlorohydroxelene的药物：这是我虚拟的，没有任何药物叫作chlorohydroxelene，如有雷同，纯属巧合。

    270 不幸的是，这些数字都是美国卫生部门中很常见的数字：我们这里所谈论的是治疗模糊症的药物——而并不是治疗后背痒的药物。事实上，真的有这样的情况，你的后背很痒，但你就是抓不到——感觉异常性背痛——这种病没有解药。

    271 我们假设样本容量为120：在这里，你可以选择任何一个你所喜欢的数字。我选择120，因为我知道它能够被6整除，结果仍然是整数。总数并不是必需的——你可以从100开始，这样表格中就会出现小数，也是可以的。

    271 绿色疾病，20个人患上了蓝色疾病：这个问题用中学代数知识就能解决。我们用x来代表那些患不那么常见疾病的人（蓝脸症）；5x代表更常见的疾病（绿脸症）；x+5x等于我们预先设定的总人数。我们列出等式 x+5x=120。将左边的等式加起来就等于 6x=120。等式两边同时除以6，得到x=20。因此，患蓝脸症的人的数量为20.

    273 开罚单获得长期的回报： 出版商告诉我，我需要给出以下备注：我并不是提倡大家都违法停车，我只是虚构了一件事情而已。

    274 650美元的罚单或者1040美元的停车费：我们可以将不同的结果相加得到预期价值。假设有一盒纸币——面值分别为1美元、5美元、20美元。你可以拿其中一种，然后拥有任何你所拿到的。盒子里有65张1美元，25张5美元，20张20美元。那么这个游戏的预期价值是多少？由于总面值等于100(65+25+10)，我们可以很快速地将这些计算成可能性：有0.65的概率拿到1美元，0.25的概率拿到5美元，0.1的概率拿到20美元。我们将每个概率乘以面值，加起来得到：

    0.65×1美元=0.65美元

    0.25×5美元=1.25美元

    0.1×20美元=2.00美元

    　　　　　　3.90美元

    因此，预期价值为3.9美元。请注意，你永远不可能真正拿到这些金额。这只是你可能会拿到的金额的平均值。这可以帮助我们计算出为了玩这个游戏，你需要花费多少。随着纸币数量的减少，概率会降低，因为盒子里剩下的纸币的数量变少，你知道你已经拥有的纸币数量。

    参加狂欢节套圈的游戏时，你可能会被那些动物模型或者其他奖励所吸引。这个游戏的开销仅仅只是奖励价值的一部分。但狂欢都是为了赚钱的，他们会想办法让“庄家”有利。游戏的预期价值总是比开销稍低。尽管有少数人得到了大奖，获得了比开销更多的奖励，但从长远来看，赚钱的是狂欢节。

    赌场也是这样赚钱的。

    275 医生处理这些数据也很困难：我曾经担任了好几年的医学院老师，我知道这一点。此外，大多数医学院的学生都无法评价信息渠道，因为他们没有学会这样的知识，他们也不愿意。Thompson, N., Lewis, S., Brennan, P., & Robinson, J. (2010). Information literacy: Are final-year medical radiation science students on the pathway to success? Journal of Allied Health, 39(3), e83–e89. 公正地说，医学训练一定会掺杂很多细节，任务也很繁重，除预先设置的课程外，大多数学生都没有太多时间——太多信息需要在相对较短的时间内吸收。

    275 “医生掌握的关于疗效的知识……”：Jones, D. S. (2012). Broken hearts: The tangled history of cardiac care. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press.

    275全美每年都有50万人接受这种手术：University of Michigan Health System. (2013). Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). 摘自 http:// www. med. umich. edu/ cardiac-surgery/ patient/ adult/ adultcandt/ cabg. shtml。

    275 接受过这种手术的病人大多没有得到任何实际生存价值：Murphy, M. L., Hultgren, H. N., Detre, K., Thomsen, J., & Takaro, T. (1977). Treatment of chronic stable angina: A preliminary report of survival data of the randomized Veterans Administration Cooperative Study. New England Journal of Medicine, 297(12), 621–627.

    276 ……他们会相信它真的有效……：Jones, D. S. (2012). Broken hearts: The tangled history of cardiac care. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press.

    276 血管成形术在一年的时间内从0增加到10万例：Park, A. (2013, March–April). A cardiac conundrum: How gaps in medical knowledge affect matters of the heart. Harvard Magazine, 25–29.

    276 但医学实验并没有显示任何生存益处：Ellis, S. G., Mooney, M. R., George, B. S., Da Silva, E. E., Talley, J. D., Flanagan, W. H., & Topol, E. J. (1992). Randomized trial of late elective angioplasty versus conservative management for patients with residual stenoses after thrombolytic treatment of myocardial infarction. Treatment of Post-Thrombolytic Stenoses (TOPS) Study Group. Circulation, 86(5), 1400–1406.

    Hueb, W., Lopes, N. H., Gersh, B. J., Soares, P., Machado, L. A., Jatene, F. B., . . . Ramires, J. A. (2007). Five-year follow-up of the Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study (MASS II): A randomized controlled clinical trial of 3 therapeutic strategies for multivessel coronary artery disease. Circulation, 115(9), 1082–1089.

    Michels, K. B., & Yusuf, S. (1995). Does PTCA in acute myocardial infarction affect mortality and reinfarction rates? A quantitative overview ( meta-analysis) of the randomized clinical trials. Circulation, 91(2), 476–485.

    276 只能将他们的寿命延长1天：Jones, D. S. (2012). Broken hearts: The tangled history of cardiac care. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press.

    276需要做出选择的病人：Engelmann, J. B., Capra, C. M., Noussair, C., & Berns, G. S. (2009). Expert financial advice neurobiologically “offloads” financial decision-making under risk. PLoS One, 4(3), e4957.

    276 将决定权转交给专家：Hertz, N. (2013, October 20). Why we make bad decisions. The New York Times, p. SR6.

    276 前列腺癌的治疗：在此我借鉴了自己之前出版的一部作品。Levitin, D. J. (2011, October 9). Heal thyself. [Review of the book Your medical mind: How to decide what is right for you by J. Groopman & P. Hartzband]. The New York Times Sunday Book Review, p. BR28.

    276 250万男性：Howlader, N., Noone, A. M., Krapcho, M., Neyman, N., Aminou, R., Waldron, W., . . . Cronin, K. A. (Eds.). SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975–2009 (Vintage 2009 Populations). Bethesda, MD: National Cancer Institute, based on November 2011 SEER data submission. 摘自 http:// seer. cancer. gov / archive/ csr/ 1975 2009 pops09/。

    276 3%的人死于这种疾病：美国癌症协会. (2013). What are the key statistics about prostate cancer? 摘自 http:// www. cancer. org。

    277 激进的治疗方案来移除癌症：美国癌症协会. (2013). Prostate cancer treatment (PDQ®): Treatment option overview. 摘自 http:// www .cancer. gov。

    Scholz, M., & Blum, R. (2010). Invasion of the prostate snatchers: No more unnecessary biopsies, radical treatment or loss of sexual potency. New York, NY: Other Press, pp. 20–21.

    277 伴随癌症死亡：Groopman, J., & Hartzband, P. (2011). Your medical mind: How to decide what is right for you. New York, NY: Penguin, pp. 246–247.

    Hessels, D., Verhaegh, G. W., Schalken, J. A., & Witjes, J. A. (2004). Applicability of biomarkers in the early diagnosis of prostate cancer. Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics, 4(4), 513–526.

    277 那副作用呢?：Hugosson, J., Stranne, J., & Carlsson, S. V. (2011). Radical retropubic prostatec-tomy: A review of outcomes and side-effects. Acta Oncologica, 50(Suppl. 1), 92–97.

    National Cancer Institute. (2014). Stage I prostate cancer treatment. 摘自 http:// www. cancer. gov

    Prostate Doctor. (2011, June 4). Shortening of the penis after prostatectomy: Yes, it really happens [Web log message]. 摘自 http:// myprostatedoc . blogspot. com。

    Talcott, J. A., Rieker, P., Clark, J. A., Propert, K. J., Weeks, J. C., Beard, C. J., . . . Kantoff, P. W. (1998). Patient-reported symptoms after primary therapy for early prostate cancer: Results of a prospective cohort study. Journal of Clinical Oncology, 16(1), 275–283, p. 275.

    Wilt, T. J., MacDonald R., Rutks, I., Shamliyan, T. A., Taylor, B. C., & Kane, R. L. (2008). Systematic review: Comparative effectiveness and harms of treatments for clinically localized prostate cancer. Annals of Internal Medicine, 148(6), 435–448.

    277 47/48 Schröder, F. H., Hugosson, J., Roobol, M. J., Tammela, T., Ciatto, S., Nelen, V., . . . Auvinen, A. (2009). Screening and prostate cancer mortality in a randomized European study. New England Journal of Medicine, 360(13), 1320–1328.

    278 高出24倍：Kao, T. C., Cruess, D. F., Garner, D., Foley, J., Seay, T., Friedrichs, P., . . . Moul, J. W. (2000). Multicenter patient self-reporting questionnaire on impotence, incontinence and stricture after radical prostatectomy. The Journal of Urology, 163(3), 858–864.

    Bates, T. S., Wright, M. P., & Gillatt, D. A. (1998). Prevalence and impact of incontinence and impotence following total prostatectomy assessed anonymously by the ICS-Male Questionnaire. European Urology 33(2), 165-169.

    278 20%的人会对他们的决定感到后悔 Parker-Pope, T. (2008, August 27). Regrets after prostate surgery. The New York Times.

    278 “真的很难告诉医生……”：引自Pollock, A. (2013, May 8). New test improves assessment of prostate cancer risk, study says. The New York Times, p. B3.

    279 “外科医生通常被告知……”：巴尼·科尼特, 个人交流，2014年1月30日, 纽约。

    280 每锻炼一个小时，你的寿命将延长一个小时：Science Daily Health Behavior News Service. (2012). Exercise can extend your life by as much as five years. 摘自 www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2012/ 12/ 121211082810. Htm。

    280 无法与任何单个个体匹配：我们一起来看看人们平均每周花在看电视上的时间。在一个小的公寓中，也许有4个人一周看一个小时电视，1个人一周看10个小时。为了计算平均数，我们将每周的总时间相加(1+1+1+1+10=14) ，然后除以人数 (14/ 5) 得到了 2. 8。实际上，公寓中没有任何人真的看了2.8小时电视。这只是平均数。

    我在这里所说的平均数实际上就是统计概念中的平均数。

    计算集中趋势的方法有两种：中位数和众数，这些也被称为平均值。中位数也就是中间点，一半在这之上，一半在这之下。如果我们看同一公寓楼内的每周收入，分别是500美元、500美元、600美元、700美元、800美元，中位数就是600美元：一半高于600美元，一半低于600美元（按照惯例，当你每星期观看电视的小时数很长的时候，你仍然计算进入了中位数，这个数字成为中值；在电视的例子，中位数为1）。另一种方法称为众数，就是最经常出现的值。在电视的例子，众数为1。在每周收入的例子中，众数为500美元。我们需要注意，平均数、中位数、众数是不同的。它们有着不同的用途。关于它们的用途，可以参见Wheelan, C. (2013). Naked statistics: Stripping the dread from the data. New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Company.

    282 勃起功能障碍：Tuncel, A., Kirilmaz, U., Nalcacioglu, V., Aslan, Y., Polat, F., & Atan, A. (2008). The impact of transrectal prostate needle biopsy on sexuality in men and their female partners. Urology, 71(6), 1128–1131.

    285 “……医学统计与其他统计不一样” ：我希望你，亲爱的读者，当我说医学统计与其他统计不同的时候，你一定要相信我。等式中的数字永远不知道它们是用于描述癌症还是故障燃料喷嘴器的。我希望只是这一位外科医生的反应不正常，但不幸的是，我听到了太多不同的版本。幸好，比起决策，外科医生更擅长手术。但这并不意味着我们需要时刻警惕，决定某种情形下外科医生是否给了我们最好的选择。

    287 行医既是一种艺术，也是一门科学：Edwards, A., Elwyn, G., & Mulley, A. (2002). Explaining risks: Turning numerical data into meaningful pictures. BMJ, 324(7341), 827–830.

    288 白喉从175000例下降：National Immunization Program, CDC. (1999). Achievements in public health, 1900–1999 impact of vaccines universally recommended for children—United States, 1990–1998. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 48(12), 243–248. 摘自 http:// www. cdc. gov/ mmwr/ preview / mmwrhtml/ 00056803. htm#00003753. htm。

    289 世界平均寿命已经增加：Global life expectancy 10, 000 BCE-2003. (n. d.). 摘自 http:// cdn. singularityhub. com/ wp-content/ uploads / 2013/ 09/ life-expectancy-hockey-stick. png。

    289 美国人均寿命：National Institutes of Health. (n. d.). U. S. life expectancy. 摘自 http:// www. nih. gov/ about/ impact/ life expectancy graph. htm。

    289 婴儿、新生儿以及不到一周岁的新生儿的死亡率：Maternal and Child Health Bureau. (2013). Infant mortality. 摘自 http:// mchb. hrsa. gov/ chusa13/ perinatal -health-status-indicators/ p/ infant-mortality. html。

    289 儿童白血病：Simone, J. V. (2003). Childhood leukemia— successes and challenges for survivors. New England Journal of Medicine, 349(7), 627–628.

    290 这项产业涉及全球600亿美元：Think yourself better. The Economist. (2011, May 19). The New York Times estimates it as a $32 billion business in the US.

    O’Connor, A. (2013, December 21). Spike in harm to liver is tied to dietary aids. The New York Times, p. A1.

    290 四成美国人：Mayo Clinic Staff. (2011, October 20). Complementary and alternative medicine. 摘自 http:// www. mayoclinic. com/ health / alternative-medicine/ PN00001。

    290 它就被称为医药了：感谢 Ben Goldacre。

    291 反复稀释物质：Ernst, E. (2002). A systematic review of systematic reviews of homeopathy. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology, 54(6), 577–582.

    Jonas, W. B., Kaptchuk, T. J., & Linde, K. (2003). A critical overview of homeopathy. Annals of Internal Medicine, 138(5), 393–399.

    291 根据顺势疗法的说法，原物质的“震动”：Dancu, D. (1996). Homeopathic vibrations: A guide for natural healing. Longmont, CO: SunShine Press Publications.

    and, Kratky, K. W. (2004). Homöopathie und Wasserstruktur: Ein physikalisches Modell [Homeopathy and structure of water: A physical model]. Forschende Komplementärmedizin und Klassische Naturheilkunde [Research in Complementary and Classical Natural Medicine], 11(1), 24–32.

    Vithoulkas, G. (1980). The science of homeopathy. New York, NY: Grove Press.

    291 遵循某些特殊的步骤：Goldacre, B. (2011, February 19). In case of overdose, consult a lifeguard. The Guardian.

    Randi, J. [Rational Response Squad]. (2006, November 16). James Randi explains homeopathy [Video file]. 摘自 http:// www. youtube. com。

    291 太阳系大小的碗中：假设一粒米为5×1.4×1.4毫米，或体积为9.8立方毫米，转换为英里=2.4×10-18 。以我们的太阳系从太阳到奥尔特云的一端半径大小为标准，大约50 AU或4.65×1012 英里。体积= 4/3∏γ3=4.21×1038 。一粒米的体积在太阳系中将为（2.4×10-18 ）/（4.21×1038 ）= 5.70×10-57 。实现了稀释1×101500 需要1500/57倍稀释液，或26次以上。

    291 提供100万美元：Solon, O. (2011, February 11). Sceptic offers $1 million for proof that homeo-pathy works. Wired UK.

    292 相当于安慰剂：Think yourself better. The Economist. (2011, May 19).

    292 复合维生素实际上是没有任何效果的：Ebbing, M., & Vollset, S. E. (2013). Long-term supple-mentation with multivitamins and minerals did not improve male US physicians’ cardiovascular health or prolong their lives. Evidence-Based Medicine, 18(6), 218–219.

    Guallar, E., Stranges, S., Mulrow, C., Appel, L. J., & Miller, E. R. (2013). Enough is enough: Stop wasting money on vitamin and mineral supplements. Annals of Internal Medicine, 159(12), 850–851.

    Willig, A. (2014, January 19). Multivitamins are no use? The Guardian.

    292过量的维生素D：Rattue, G. (2012, January 9). Can too much vitamin D harm cardiovascular health? Probably. Medical News Today.

    292 过量的维生素B6：Sheehan, J. (n. d.). Can you take too much vitamin B6 & vitamin B12? 摘自 http:// healthyeating. sfgate. com/ can-much-vitamin-b6-vitamin -b12-6060. html。

    292 尽管数以百万计的美国人……维生素C：Marshall, C. W. (n. d.). Vitamin C: Do high doses prevent colds? 摘自 http:// www. quackwatch. com/ 01QuackeryRelated Topics/ DSH/ colds. html。

    292 或紫锥菊：Bauer, B. A. (n. d.). Will dietary supplements containing echinacea help me get over a cold faster? 摘自 http:// www . mayoclinic. com/ health/ echinacea/ an01982。

    295 “每一位等待聚会晚归女儿的家长……”：Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

    295 死亡人数增加了2170人：这其中存在统计争议。戴奥南丹和贝克威尔（2011）发现死亡人数并无差距，但伤病人数增加了。布莱洛克、卡迪亚里与西蒙（2009）发现，死亡人数在2011年的最后三个月为982，但从长远来看，死亡人数为2300。“9·11”的影响似乎还在继续——人们担心，恐怖分子会在“9·11”周年的前后再次发动恐怖袭击，因此每年九月，国道事故就比以往多好几百例。

    吉热恩泽（2006）曾经写到，“据估算，为了避免遭受四大致命航班殒命的魔咒，每年大约有1500位美国人死在公路上。”

    查普曼与哈里斯（2002）就人类无法正确地识别风险，对一些死亡形式反应过大或过小，曾经写过一篇很好的文章。参见 Kenny (2011), 以及 Sivac & Flannagan (2003)。

    Blalock, G., Kadiyali, V., & Simon, D. H. (2009). Driving fatalities after 9/ 11: A hidden cost of terrorism. Applied Economics, 41(14), 1717–1729.

    Chapman, C. R., & Harris, A. W. (2002). A skeptical look at September 11th.Skeptical Inquirer, 26(5). 摘自 http://www.csicop.org

    Deonandan, R., & Backwell, A. (2011). Driving deaths and injuries post-9/ 11. International Journal of General Medicine, 4, 803–807.

    Gigerenzer, G. (2006). Out of the frying pan into the fire: Behavioral reactions to terrorist attacks. Risk Analysis, 26(2), 347–351.

    Hampson, R. (2011, September 5). After 9/ 11: 50 dates that quietly changed America. USA Today.

    Kenny, C. (2011, November 18). Airport security is killing us. Business Week.

    Sivak M., & Flannagan, M. (2003). Flying and driving after the September 11 attacks. American Scientist, 91(1), 6–8.

    295 数十亿次安全飞行：Snyder, B. (2012, January 9) An incredibly safe year for air travel. CNN. 摘自 http:// www. cnn. com。

    295 “恐怖分子可以伤害我们两次……”：Gaissmaier, W., & Gigerenzer, G. (2012). 9/ 11, Act II: A fine-grained analysis of regional variations in traffic fatalities in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks. Psychological Science, 23(12), 1449–1454.

    295 但事实并非如此：Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

    296 只有20%的准确率：Christakis, N. A. (1999). Death foretold: Prophecy and prognosis in medical care. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.

    296 有40%都做出了错误的判断：Berner, E. S., & Graber, M. L., (2008). Overconfidence as a cause of diagnostic error in medicine. American Journal of Medicine, 121(5 Suppl.), S2–S23.

    297 七成公司：O’Connor, A. (2013, December 21). Spike in harm to liver is tied to dietary aids. The New York Times, p. A1.

    297 克里斯托弗·赫雷拉：O’Connor, A. (2013, December 21). Spike in harm to liver is tied to dietary aids. The New York Times, p. A1.

    297 绿茶提取物用于燃烧脂肪，随后他就出现了严重的肝功能损伤：摘自 O’Connor, A. (2013, December 22). Spike in harm to liver is tied to dietary aids. The New York Times, p. A1.

    298再多的故事也无法构成数据：Sechrest, L., & Pitz, D. (1987). Commentary: Measuring the effecti-veness of heart transplant programmes. Journal of Chronic Diseases, 40(Suppl. 1), 155S–158S.

    299 史蒂夫·乔布斯身上的故事，他拒绝手术：Quora. (n. d). Why did Steve Jobs choose not to effectively treat his cancer? 摘自 http:// www. quora. com/ Steve-Jobs / Why-did-Steve-Jobs-choose-not-to-effectively-treat-his-cancer。

    Walton, A. G. (2011, October 24). Steve Jobs’ cancer treatment regrets. Forbes.

    300 美国国立卫生研究院下设了……分院：National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine (NCCAM). (n. d.). 摘自 http:// nccam. nih. gov/。

    300 从替代疗法中获益： 参见 Garg, S. K., Croft, A. M., & Bager, P. (2014, January 20). Helminth therapy (worms) for induction of remission in inflammatory bowel disease. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, (1), Art. No. CD009400. 摘自 http:// summaries. cochrane. org/ CD009400 / helminth-therapy-worms-for-induction-of-remission-in-inflammatory-bowel -disease。

    White, A. R., Rampes, H., Liu, J. P., Stead, L. F., & Campbell, J. (2014, January 23). Acupuncture and related interventions for smoking cessation. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, (1), Art. No. CD000009. 摘自 http:// summaries . cochrane. org/ CD000009/ do-acupuncture-and-related-therapies-help-smokers-who -are-trying-to-quit。

    300 服用维生素D的150人中：Bjelakovic, G., Gluud, L., Nikolova, D., Whitfield, K., Wetterslev, J., Simonetti, R. G., . . . Gluud, C. (2014). Vitamin D supplementation for prevention of mortality in adults. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, (1), Art. No. CD007470. 摘自 http:// summaries .cochrane. org / CD007470/ vitamin-d-supplementation-for-prevention-of-mortality-in-adults#sthash . Z6rLxTiS. dpuf。

    300 过量维生素D将指向死亡：Durup, D., Jørgensen, H. L., Christensen, J., Schwarz, P., Heegaard, A. M., & Lind, B. (2012). A reverse J-shaped association of all-cause mortality with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D in general practice: The CopD study. The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, 97(8), 2644–2652.

    Groopman, J., & Hartzband, P. (2011). Your medical mind: How to decide what is right for you. New York, NY: Penguin.

    301 4种病人：我在此借鉴了我之前曾出版的文章. Levitin, D. J. (2011, October 9). Heal thyself. [Review of the book Your medical mind: How to decide what is right for you by J. Groopman & P. Hartzband]. The New York Times Sunday Book Review, p. BR28.

    302 前景理论与预期效用：参见 Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–292.

    303 场景D将死的可能性转变成绝对的生存：阿莫斯曾经讲了这样一个故事：一位已婚男性已经有两个孩子，他被恐怖分子劫持，并强迫他玩一个类似于俄罗斯轮盘赌的游戏。左轮手枪中装入了不同数量的子弹。囚犯可以付款给劫持者，以此拆出手枪中的一颗子弹。矛盾的是，他必须平衡他生存下来的可能性，以及身无分文地离开他的妻子和孩子的可能性（我们假设，故事是值得尊敬的，游戏一开始，劫持者准确地告诉了他手枪中有多少子弹。只要他玩一次这个游戏，劫持者就会放他走）。

    a. 如果枪里有6颗子弹的话，你会花费多少来拆除一颗子弹，让死亡的风险从6/6变为5/6呢？

    b. 如果枪里有4颗子弹的话，你会花费多少来拆除一颗子弹，让死亡的风险从4/6变为3/6呢？

    c. 如果枪里有1颗子弹的话，你会花费多少来拆除一颗子弹，让死亡的风险从1/6变为0呢？

    在场景c中，我们愿意付出任何代价，将死亡率降至0。我们也可以在场景a中花费相同的代价。但场景b与其他两个场景有所不同。你是将一种可能性变为另一种可能性，而不是将肯定变为可能（场景a），也不是将可能变为肯定（场景c）。

    303 卡尼曼《思考，快与慢》：Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

    303 甚至是可笑的操控：Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American Psychologist, 39(4), 341–350, p. 341.

    304 5年后，78人死亡：我已经将这些例子简化，以关注重要因素。摘自Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1986). Rational choice and the framing of decisions. Journal of Business 59(4 pt 2), S251–S278.

    304 比起原始数字，往往更关注图形：Ferrara, F., Pratt, D., & Robutti, O. (2006). The role and uses of technologies for the teaching of algebra and calculus. In A. Gutiérrez & P. Boero (Eds.), Handbook of research on the psychology of mathematics education: Past, present and future (pp. 237–273). Boston, MA: Sense Publishers.

    Tall, D. (1991). Intuition and rigour: The role of visualization in the calculus. In W. Zimmermann & S. Cunningham (Eds.), Visualization in teaching and learning mathematics: A project (pp. 105–119). Washington, DC: Mathematical Association of America.

    305 每一个类别下人数的比重：Cates, C. (n. d.). Dr. Chris Cates’ EBM website. 摘自 http:// www. nntonline. net/。

    306 我向一位轮胎专家咨询了此事：Crosswhite, R., 个人交流. April 29, 2013, American Tire Depot, Sherman Oaks, CA。

    Montoya, R. (2011, November 18). How old— and dangerous— are your tires? 摘自 http:// www. edmunds. com。

    第7章

    309 随之而来的政府调查认定：魁北克政府，魁北克交通部. (2007). Commission of inquiry into the collapse of a portion of the de la Concorde overpass: Report. 摘自 http:// www. cevc. gouv. qc. ca/ UserFiles/ File/ Rap port/ report_ eng. pdf。

    309 以次充好的施工案例在人类历史上早有出现：Tranquillus Suetonius, C. (1997). Lives of the twelve Caesars (H. M. Bird, Trans.). Hertfordshire, UK: Wordsworth Classics of World Literature.

    310 19世纪中期之前，企业大多都还是小规模：Yates, J. (1989). Control through commu-nication: The rise of system in American management. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press. 这一段，我借鉴了耶茨的成果，包括我在引言中所借鉴的耶茨论文中的语句。

    这其中有两个特例。Dutch East India 公司是一家注册的跨国公司，到1602年一直在经营；Hudson’s Bay 成立于1670年，至今仍在经营。

    Damodaran, A. (2009). The octopus: Valuing multi-business, multi-national companies. 摘自 http:// dx. doi. org/ 10. 2139/ ssrn. 1609795。

    Lubinsky, P., Romero-Gonzalez, G. A., Heredia, S. M., & Zabel, S. (2011). Origins and patterns of vanilla cultivation in tropical America ( 1500–1900): No support for an independent domestication of vanilla in South America. In D. Havkin-Frenkel & F. Belanger (Eds.), Handbook of vanilla science and technology (p. 117). Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing.

    Shorto, R. (2013). Amsterdam: A history of the world’s most liberal city. New York, NY: Doubleday.

    310 文档记录及功能专业化：这一段中部分文字节引自 Yates, J. (1989). Control through communica-tion: The rise of system in American management. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, p. 1.

    310 没人知道：耶茨(1989)对此做了详尽阐述，并告诉读者“Report on the collision of trains, near Chester,” October 16, 1841, Western Railroad Clerk’s File #74; in Western Railroad Collection, Case #1, Baker Library, Harvard Business School. Yates, J. (1989). Control through communication: The rise of system in American management. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press.

    311 铁路公司调查人员：从这些事故中，铁路部门发现，确实需要更多更常规、更结构化的交通方式。管理层开始识别他们所需要的信息——例如，火车的速度，出发时间，车厢数量——为了将效率最大化（经济效益最大化），将事故最少化。

    311单个个体……能力：“超越任何单个个体对技术、记忆、能力的依赖”这句话直接引自Yates, p. 10, citing Jelinek, M. (1980). Toward systematic management: Alexander Hamilton Church. Business History Review, 54(01), 63–79. Yates, J. (1989). Control through communication: The rise of system in American management. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press.

    311 严格按照标准方式履行职责：“准确定义职责与责任，并严格按照标准方式履行职责” 这句话直接引自 Litterer, J. A. (1963). Systematic management: Design for organizational recoupling in American manufacturing firms. Business History Review, 37(4), 369–391, p. 389.

    还可参见Litterer, J. A. (1961). Systematic management: The search for order and integration. Business History Review, 35 (4), 461–476.

    311 英国效率专家亚历山大·汉密尔顿：Jelinek, M. (1980). Toward systematic management: Alexander Hamilton Church. Business History Review, 54(1), 63–79, p. 69.

    Litterer, J. A. (1961). Systematic management: The search for order and integration. Business History Review, 35(4), 461–476.

    312 员工之间的关系：Chandler, Jr., A. D. (1962). Strategy and structure: Chapters in the history of the American industrial enterprise. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

    Kaliski, B. S. (2001). Encyclopedia of business and finance. New York, NY: Macmillan, p. 669.

    312 网络结构图最早被引入：Moreno, J. L. (1943). Sociometry and the cultural order. Sociometry 6(3), 299–344.

    Wasserman, S. (1994). Social network analysis: Methods and applications (Vol. 8). New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.

    313 比较以下两种不同的组织图：Whitenton, K. (2013, November 10). Flat vs. deep web hierarchies. Nielsen Norman Group. 摘自 http://www.nngroup. com/ articles/ flat-vs-deep-hierarchy/。

    314 中央控制与沟通的横向结构：Dodson, J. R. (2006). Man-hunting, nexus topography, dark networks, and small worlds. IO Sphere, 7–10.

    Heger, L., Jung, D., & Wong, W. H. (2012). Organizing for resistance: How group structure impacts the character of violence. Terrorism and Political Violence, 24(5), 743–768.

    Matusitz, J. (2011). Social network theory: A comparative analysis of the Jewish revolt in antiquity and the cyber terrorism incident over Kosovo. Information Security Journal: A Global Perspective, 20(1), 34–44.

    314 同一项目、不同部门直接的连贯：Simon, H. A. (1957). Administrative behavior: A study of decision-making processes in administrative organization. New York, NY: Macmillan, p. 9.

    314 追究员工在决定与工作成果方面的责任：Simon, H. A. (1957). Administrative behavior: A study of decision-making processes in administrative organization. New York, NY: Macmillan, p. 2.

    314 全球共有50家公司：CNN Money. (n. d.). Top companies: Biggest employers. 摘自 http:// money. cnn. com/。

    Hess, A. E. M. (2013, August 22). The 10 largest employers in America. USA Today.

    314 将公司视为一种记忆力交互系统：Wegner, D. M. (1987). Transactive memory: A contemporary analysis of the group mind. In B. Mullen & F. R. Goethals (Eds.), Theories of group behavior (pp. 185–208). New York, NY: Springer-Verlag.

    315 纵向结构让管理层：几乎直接摘自Jones, G. R., Mills, A. J., Weatherbee, T. G., & Mills, J. H. (2006). Organizational theory, design, and change (Canadian ed.). Toronto, Canada: Prentice Hall, p. 150.

    316 其企业文化提倡：Jones, G. R., Mills, A. J., Weatherbee, T. G., & Mills, J. H. (2006). Organiza-tional theory, design, and change (Canadian ed.). Toronto, ON: Prentice Hall, p. 144.

    316 丽诗克莱本在设计：几乎直接摘自Jones, G. R., Mills, A. J., Weatherbee, T. G., & Mills, J. H. (2006). Organizational theory, design, and change (Canadian ed.). Toronto, ON: Prentice Hall, p. 147.

    316每个公司都有适合自己的不同的结构：Andersen, J. A., & Jonsson, P. (2006). Does organization structure matter? On the relationship between the structure, functioning and effectiveness. International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management, 3(03), 237–263.

    316相反，它会让层次结构因子增加2：Blau, P. M. (1974). On the nature of organizations. American Journal of Sociology, 82(5). 1130–1132.

    Delmastro, M. (2002). The determinants of the management hierarchy: Evidence from Italian plants. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 20(1), 119–137.

    Graubner, M. (2006). Task, firm size, and organizational structure in management consulting: An empirical analysis from a contingency perspective (Vol. 63). Frankfurt, Germany: Deutscher Universitäts-Verlag.

    316 9级或10级的层次：Jones, G. R., Mills, A. J., Weatherbee, T. G., & Mills, J. H. (2006). Organiza-tional theory, design, and change (Canadian ed.). Toronto, Canada: Prentice Hall, p. 146.

    316 结构层次越少越好：Hill, C. W. L., & Jones, G. R. (2008). Strategic management: An integrated approach (8th ed.). New York, NY: Houghton Mifflin Company.

    317 火的熄灭并不仅仅依靠消防队长：这一节参考了 Simon, H. A. (1957). Administrative behavior: A study of decision-making processes in administrative organization (2nd ed.). New York, NY: Macmillan, p. 2.

    318包括脑岛和杏仁核：Sanfey, A. G., Rilling, J. K., Aronson, J. A., Nystrom, L. E., & Cohen, J. D. (2003). The neural basis of economic decision-making in the ultimatum game. Science, 300(5626), 1755–1758.

    318 战逃反应：Basten, U., Biele, G., Heekeren, H. R., & Fiebach, C. J. (2010). How the brain integrates costs and benefits during decision-making. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(50), 21767–21772.

    318 理性实际上一部分只是幻觉：de Waal, F. B. M. (2008). How selfish an animal? The case of primate cooperation. In P. J. Zak (Ed.), Moral markets: The critical role of values in the economy (pp. 63–76). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, p. 63.

    319 “下属及相邻组织……”：美国陆军部. (2011). Unified land operations, ADP3–0. Washington, DC: United States Department of the Army.

    319 “……干涉下属队伍的权限范围”： 美国陆军部. (1923). Field service regulations United States Army. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, p. 7.

    320 “……所有层次之间的信任都依赖于公正……” ：美国陆军部. (2012). The army, ADP 1. Washington, DC: United States Department of the Army, p. 2.

    320 “……愿意从错误中学习……”：美国陆军部.(2012). The army, ADP 1. Washington, DC: United States Department of the Army, pp. 2–4.

    320 “……密切观察下级的同步行为”：美国陆军部. (2012). Mission command, ADP 6–0. Washington, DC: United States Department of the Army, p. 8.

    320 接受了更多的训练，拥有更多的经验：Simon, H. A. (1957). Administrative behavior: A study of decision-making processes in administrative organization (2nd ed.). New York, NY: Macmillan, p. 236.

    320 利用这些时间做出更重要的决策：几乎直接引自Simon, H. A. (1957). Administrative behavior: A study of decision-making processes in administrative organization (2nd ed.). New York, NY: Macmillan, p. 236.

    320 比起上级，他们可能更接近事实：几乎直接引自 Simon, H. A. (1957). Administrative behavior: A study of decision-making processes in administrative organization (2nd ed.). New York, NY: Macmillan, p. 238.

    321 “……他们从现场了解的实际情况中增加其他任何有价值的东西”：McChrystal, S., 个人交流，2013年7月18日。

    322 “……他们需要自己做出决定，并对自己的决定满意”： Wynn, S., 个人交流，2012年5月5日，拉斯维加斯。

    322 “……他会做他需要做的事情”：布隆伯格， 个人交流，2013年7月20日。

    323 是人类大脑固有的，是进化的产物：Mikhail, J. (2007). Universal moral grammar: Theory, evidence and the future. Trends in Cognitive Science, 11(4), 143–152.

    Petrinovich, L., O’Neill, P., & Jorgensen, M. (1993). An empirical study of moral intuitions: Toward an evolutionary ethics. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 64(3), 467–478, p. 467.

    Wright, R. (1995). The moral animal: Why we are, the way we are: The new science of evolutionary psychology (First Vintage Books ed.). New York, NY: Random House Vintage Books.

    323 即使是3岁的小孩，也会反抗不公： LoBue, V., Nishida, T., Chiong, C., DeLoache, J. S., & Haidt, J. (2011). When getting something good is bad: Even three-year-olds react to inequality. Social Development, 20(1), 154–170.

    323 “……作战归来的士兵不仅是一位好士兵……”：美国陆军部 (2012). The army, ADP 1. Washington, DC: United States Department of the Army, pp. 2-7.

    323 “……赋予战斗力有效性和伦理性” ：美国陆军部. (2012). The army, ADP 1. Washington, DC: United States Department of the Army, pp. 2-5.

    324 伦理决策或道德决策：Salvador, R., & Folger, R. G. (2009). Business ethics and the brain. Business Ethics Quarterly, 19(1), 1–31.

    324 也需要这两大区域的参与：Harlow, J. M. (1848). Passage of an iron rod through the head. Boston Medical and Surgical Journal, 39(20), 389–393.

    Moll, J., de Oliveira-Souza, R., Eslinger, P. J., Bramati, I. E., Mourão-Miranda, J., Andreiulo, P. A., & Pessoa, L. (2002). The neural correlates of moral sensitivity: A functional magnetic resonance imaging investigation of basic and moral emotions. The Journal of Neuroscience, 22(7), 2730–2736.

    Spitzer, M., Fischbacher, U., Herrnberger, B., Grön, G., & Fehr, E. (2007). The neural signature of social norm compliance. Neuron, 56(1), 185–196.

    324 做出一些不合时宜的行为：Salvador, R., & Folger, R. G. (2009). Business ethics and the brain. Business Ethics Quarterly, 19(1), 1–31.

    324 只要视频中的人物：King, J. A., Blair, R. J., Mitchell, D. G., Dolan, R. J., & Burgess, N. (2006). Doing the right thing: A common neural circuit for appropriate violent or compassionate behavior. NeuroImage, 30(3), 1069–1076.

    Englander, Z. A., Haidt, J., & Morris, J. P. (2012). Neural basis of moral elevation demonstrated through inter-subject synchronization of cortical activity during free-viewing. PloS One, 7(6), e39384.

    Cavanna, A. E., & Trimble, M. R. (2006). The precuneus: A review of its functional anatomy and behavioural correlates. Brain, 129(3), 564–583.

    324 这些神经元集群：Margulies, D. S., Vincent, J. L., Kelly, C., Lohmann, G., Uddin, L. Q., Biswal, B. B., . . . Petrides, M. (2009). Precuneus shares intrinsic functional architecture in humans and monkeys. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(47), 20069–20074.

    de Waal, F. B. M., Leimgruber, K., & Greenberg, A. R. (2008). Giving is self-rewarding for monkeys. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(36), 13685–13689.

    325 得到了更多的回报：van Wolkenten, M., Brosnan, S. F., & de Waal, F. B. M. (2007). Inequity responses of monkeys modified by effort. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(47), 18854–18859.

    325 领导的定义……不同的解读：韦尔奇，通用集团首席执行官；凯莱赫，西南航线首席执行官。这两个人管理着不同的企业文化。曾经有一段时间，韦尔奇以“中字杰克”而著名，因为他遣散员工的方式很粗鲁（清空整栋建筑，让员工站在一排，就像中字排列一样）。在长达5年的时间里，他将工资总额降低了25%。凯莱赫在员工中间培养了一种友爱、有趣的氛围，西南航空也一直被《财富》杂志列为五大雇主之一。

    325在自由社会中，有效的领导人会：美国陆军部. (2012). Army leadership, ADP 6–22. Washington, DC: United States Department of the Army, p. 1.

    325 领导这一概念进一步扩展：直接摘自 Gardner, H. (2011). Leading minds: An anatomy of leadership. New York, NY: Basic Books.

    326 脑电波活动也结合得更好：Harung, H. S., & Travis, F. (2012). Higher mind-brain development in successful leaders: Testing a unified theory of performance. Cognitive Processing, 13(2), 171–181.

    Harung, H., Travis, F., Blank, W., & Heaton, D. (2009). Higher development, brain integration, and excellence in leadership. Management Decision, 47(6), 872-894.

    327 奢华机动车与中型：Tschampa, D., & Rosemain, M. (2013, January 24). BMW to build sports car with Toyota in deeper partnership. Bloomberg News

    327 “有毒的领导人会……”：美国陆军部.(2012). Army leadership, ADP 6–22. Washington, DC: United States Department of the Army, p. 3.

    327 最新版的任务指令操作手册：美国陆军部.(2012). Mission command, ADP 6–0. Washington, DC: United States Department of the Army, p. 2.

    327 信任的获得与丢失往往是日积月累形成的：几乎直接摘自 美国陆军部. (2012). Mission command, ADP 6–0. Washington, DC: United States Department of the Army, p. 3.

    328 清晰简洁的期望与目标：直接摘自美国陆军部. (2012). Mission command, ADP 6–0. Washington, DC: United States Department of the Army, p. 4.

    329 “……我们所需要的是更多的……”：Weisbord, M. R. (2004). Productive workplace revisited: Dignity, meaning, and community in the 21st century. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass, p. Xxi.

    330查克·贝里和小理查德：Symphony. (2003). In Randel, D. M. (Ed.), The Harvard dictionary of music. Cambridge, MA: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.

    331 都是影响他们生活的最重要的因素：Rotter, J. B. (1954). Social learning and clinical psychology. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

    See also, Roark, M. H. (1978). The relationship of perception of chance in finding jobs to locus of control and to job search variables on the part of human resource agency personnel (Doctoral dissertation, Virginia Polytechnic University). 摘自 Dissertation Abstracts International, 38, 2070A. (University Microfilms No. 78-18558).

    331 这一群体学生也确实成绩更好：Whyte, C. B. (1977). High-risk college freshman and locus of control. The Humanist Educator, 16(1), 2–5.

    Whyte, C. B. (1978). Effective counseling methods for high-risk college freshmen. Measurement and Evaluation in Guidance, 10(4), 198–200.

    还可参见 Altmann, H., & Arambasich, L. (1982). A study of locus of control with adult students. Canadian Journal of Counselling and Psychotherapy, 16(2), 97–101.

    331 而那些认为自己不能够控制体重的女性对那些不那么苗条的广告模特响应更多：Martin, B. A. S., Veer, E., & Pervan, S. J. (2007). Self-referencing and consumer evaluations of larger-sized female models: A weight locus of control perspective. Marketing Letters 18(3), 197–209.

    331 他们更容易相信：Lefcourt, H. M. (1966). Internal versus external control of reinforcement: A review. Psychological Bulletin, 65(4), 206–220, p. 206.

    Moore, S. M., & Ohtsuka, K. (1999). Beliefs about control over gambling among young people, and their relation to problem gambling. Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 13(4), 339–347, p. 339.

    Rotter, J. B. (1966). Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement. Psychological Monographs: General and Applied, 80(1), 1–28, p. 1.

    332 被艾格尼丝飓风摧毁：United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (n. d.). 摘自 http:// www. noaa. gov/。

    332 那些经历挫折的外控者：Anderson, C. R. (1977). Locus of control, coping behaviors, and performance in a stress setting: A longitudinal study. Journal of Applied Psychology, 62(4), 446–451.

    332 控制点构念可以用标准心理测试测量：Spector (1986)建议，“最广泛用于测量情绪控制的工具是Rotter (1966)的内部—外部（I-E）测量，其中包括23种情绪控制，6个填充选项。”

    Rotter, J. B. (1966). Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement. Psychological Monographs: General and Applied, 80(1), 1–28, p. 1.

    332 外控者相信：Spector, P. E. (1986). Perceived control by employees: A meta-analysis of studies concerning autonomy and participation at work. Human Relations, 39(11), 1005–1016.

    332 高级别的管理人员通常有：如果读者感兴趣的话，可以参见:

    Boone, C., & De Brabander, B. (1993). Generalized vs. specific locus of control expectancies of chief executive officers. Strategic Management Journal, 14(8), 619–625.

    Boone, C., De Brabander, B., & Witteloostuijn, A. (1996). CEO locus of control and small firm performance: An integrative framework and empirical test. Journal of Management Studies, 33(5), 667–700.

    Miller, D., De Vries, M. F. R. K., & Toulouse, J-M. (1982). Top executive locus of control and its relationship to strategy-making, structure, and environment. Academy of Management Journal, 25(2), 237–253.

    Nwachukwu, O. C. (2011). CEO locus of control, strategic planning, differentiation, and small business performance: A test of a path analytic model. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 11(4), 9–14.

    332 内控者常常是高成就者：Benassi, V. A., Sweeney, P. D., & Dufour, C. L. (1988). Is there a relation between locus of control orientation and depression? Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 97(3), 357.

    333 正如你所想的那样，内控者：Phares, E. J. (1976). Locus of control in personality. New York, NY: General Learning Press.

    Wolk, S., & DuCette, J. (1974). Intentional performance and incidental learning as a function of personality and task dimensions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 29(1), 90–101.

    333 内控者会表现出更低的妥协度：Crowne, D. P., & Liverant, S. (1963). Conformity under varying conditions of commitment. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 66(6), 547–555.

    333 在被劝说时，他们更难改变自己的态度：Hjelle, L. A., & Clouser, R. (1970). Susceptibility to attitude change as a function of internal-external control. Psychological Record, 20(3), 305–310.

    333 此外，他们对回报更敏感： Spector, P. E. (1982). Behavior in organizations as a function of employee’s locus of control. Psychological Bulletin, 91(3), 482–497.

    还可参见 Wang, Q., Bowling, N. A., & Eschleman, K. J. (2010). A meta-analytic examination of work and general locus of control. Journal of Applied Psychology, 95(4), 761-768, p. 761.

    333 工作计划以及组织政策：Spector, P. E. (1982). Behavior in organizations as a function of employee’s locus of control. Psychological Bulletin, 91(3), 482–497.

    333 “……外控者，由于其更容易妥协……” ：直接引自 Spector, P. E. (1982). Behavior in organizations as a function of employee’s locus of control. Psychological Bulletin, 91(3), 482–497, p. 486.

    333 高度自主性与内控的结合： 这句话以及接下来的几句话摘自 Lonergan, J. M., & Maher, K. J. (2000). P221.The relationship between job characteristics and workplace procrastination as moderated by locus of control. Journal of Social Behavior & Personality, 15(5), 213–224.

    334 砂纸推销员理查德·G·德鲁：Kelley, T., & Littman, J. (2005). The ten faces of innovation: IDEO’s strategies for defeating the devil’s advocate & driving creativity throughout your organization. New York, NY: Doubleday.

    334 而给外控者分配更有约束的工作：Lonergan, J. M., & Maher, K. J. (2000). The relationship between job characteristics and workplace procrastination as moderated by locus of control. Journal of Social Behavior & Personality, 15(5), 213–224.

    334 归因为肤浅的动机：Epley, N. (2014). Mindwise: How we understand what others think, believe, feel, and want. New York, NY: Alfred A. Knopf.

    334 以加利福尼亚州费列蒙市通用汽车厂为例：Adler, P. S. (1993, January). Time-and-motion regained. Harvard Business Review, 71(1), 97–108.

    Adler, P. S., & Cole, R. E. (1995). Designed for learning: A tale of two auto plants. MIT Sloan Management Review 34(3), 157–178.

    Shook, J. (2010). How to change a culture: Lessons from NUMMI. MIT Sloan Management Review, 51(2), 42–51.

    334 员工无法掌控自己的工作：几乎直接摘自Epley, N. (2014). Mindwise: How we understand what others think, believe, feel, and want. New York, NY: Alfred A. Knopf.

    335 有规律的作息……能让： Currey, M. (2013). Daily rituals: How great minds make time, find inspiration, and get to work. London, UK: Picador.

    336 通常就是在浪费时间： Cuban, M. (n. d.) Quoted in 15 ways to be more productive. Inc.

    336 沃伦·巴菲特的记事本几乎是：Buffett, W. Quoted in Baer. D. (2013, June 11). Why some of the world’s most productive people have empty schedules. Lifehacker. 摘自 http:// lifehacker. com/ why-some-of-the-worlds-most-productive-people-have-emp-512473783。

    336 纸张消耗已经增加了50%：The Economist. (2012, April 3). Daily chart: I’m a lumberjack.

    336 纸张消耗量为7000万吨： United States Environmental Protection Agency. (n. d.). Frequent questions: How much paper do we use in the United States each year? 摘自 http:// www. epa. gov/ osw/ conserve/ materials/ paper/ faqs. htm#sources。

    336 6棵40英尺高的大树The Economist. (2012, April 3). Daily chart: I’m a lumberjack.

    336 影印机，也就是后来的复印机： 现代办公室成形于19世纪70年代。过去的10年见证了Gem公司回形针、订书机的发明，随后几年，圆珠笔、计算器以及橡胶日期戳相继发明。Yates, J. (1989). Control through communication: The rise of system in American management. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, p. 8.

    此外，耶茨还说明，“19世纪五六十年间，大型美国铁路公司几乎发明了所有现代会计需要的技术工具，改善了财务会计，发明了资本成本会计”。

    Chandler, A. D., Jr. (1977). The visible hand: The managerial revolution in American business. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, p. 109.

    337 松鼠可以定位它们掩埋的数百颗坚果： Jacobs, L. F., & Liman, E. R. (1991). Grey squirrels remember the locations of buried nuts. Animal Behaviour, 41(1), 103–110.

    338 第一次大的进步：Lenning, M. A. (1920). Filing methods: A text book on the filing of commer-cial and governmental records. Philadelphia, PA: T. C. Davis & Sons.

    339 “……存档内容过多时”： Yates, J. (1989). Control through communication: The rise of system in American management. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, p. 27.

    339 类似于我们今天使用的三孔活页夹：这其中包括两个可以打开和关闭的圆弧形金属环，通常用于横向抽屉内（由香农公司大量生产，也被称为香农文件）。

    339 类似我们今天使用的立式文件：Legacy of leadership: Edwin G. Seibels. (1999). 摘自 http://www.knowitall.org/legacy/laureates/Edwin%20G.% 20Seibels .html

    340 “受过教育负责采购书籍的英国人……”：Gleick, J. (2011). The Information: A history, a theory, a flood. New York, NY: Vintage, p. 58.

    343 “……活页的外面还会清晰地标明所含内容”： 琳达，个人交流，2009年11月16日。

    344 第三类是档案资料或参考资料分类：摘自Pendaflex School. Esselte. Com。

    347 人们花在所需要的信息上的时间越长：这条信息来自作者与白宫前任及现任员工的谈话，其中包括前白宫副总参谋长，他们都要求匿名，因为他们无权代表白宫发言。

    347 第一届奥巴马政府期间白宫通信办公室主任迈克·凯莱赫：Kelleher, M. (2009, August 3). Letters to the President [Video file]. 摘自 http://www.white house. gov/ blog/ Letters-to-the-President。

    348 只要有需要时，工作人员能够找出来就行：这条信息源自白宫三位官员的对话，他们都要求匿名，因为他们无权代表白宫发言。

    350 “这边的文件都是5年前就放在这儿的”： Shepard, R., 个人交流，1998年2月18。

    350 “是的，他的桌子是干净的”： Kahneman, D., 个人交流，2012年12月12日，纽约。

    350 整洁和有序并不一定总是含义相同的概念： Allen, D. (2008). Making it all work: Winning at the game of work and the business of life. New York, NY: Penguin Books, p. 131.

    352 “从一个任务切换到另一个任务” ：源自PBS电视节目Frontline中的对话. Yardley, W. (2013, November 10). Clifford Nass, who warned of a data deluge, dies at 55. The New York Times.

    352 我们都愿意相信：这一段几乎直接摘自from Konnikova, M. (2012, December 16). The power of concentration. The New York Times, p. SR8.

    还可参见 Konnikova, M. (2013). Mastermind: How to think like Sherlock Holmes. New York, NY: Penguin Books.

    352 许多管理者都会施加诸如: PBS Frontline. (2010, February 2). Interview: Clifford Nass. 摘自 http:// www. pbs. org/ wgbh/ pages/ frontline/ digitalnation/ interviews/ nass. Html。

    353 在写作本书时，每天大约有1300个针对移动设备的应用程序面市：Freierman, S. (2011, December 11). One million mobile apps, and counting at a fast pace. The New York Times.

    Readwrite. (2013, January 7). Apple iOS App Store adding 20,000 apps a month, hits 40 billion downloads. 摘自 http:// readwrite. com/ 2013/ 01/ 07/ apple-app-store-growing-by。

    353 如果被要求在紧张的环境中生产和创作……这个原因：John Kounios,摘自 Lehrer, J., (2008, July 28). The eureka hunt. The New Yorker, 40–45. 尽管目前对莱勒的学术水平存在争议, 但没有明显证据表明本文所引用的内容有何不准确之处。这两句话摘自莱勒的文章。

    还可参见: Lametti, D. (2012). Does the New Yorker give enough credit to its sources? Brow beat | Slate’s culture blog. Slate. 摘自 http:// www.slate. com/。

    353 并在公司总部安装了设施齐全的健身房：Somerville, H. (2013, May 12). Safeway CEO Steve Burd has legacy as a risk-taker. San Jose Mercury News.

    353充足的休息与锻炼时间是有回报的：The Economist. (2013, September 24). Working hours: Get a life.

    Stanford University Department of Computer Science. (n. d.). The relationship between hours worked and productivity. 摘自 http:// www-cs-faculty. stanford. edu/~eroberts/ cs181/ projects/ 2004-05/ crunchmode/ econ-hours-productivity. Html。

    353 加班两小时只能弥补1小时的工作量：Mar, J. (2013, May 3). 60-hour work week decreases productivity: Study. 摘自 http:// www .canada. com/。

    353 10分钟午睡相当于夜晚多睡一个半小时：Brooks, A., & Lack, L. (2006). A brief afternoon nap following nocturnal sleep restriction: Which nap duration is most recuperative? Sleep, 29(6), 831–840.

    Hayashi, M., Motoyoshi, N., & Hori, T. (2005). Recuperative power of a short daytime nap with or without stage 2 sleep. Sleep, 28(7), 829–836.

    Smith-Coggins, R., Howard, S. K., Mac, D. T., Wang, C., Kwan, S., Rose-kind, M. R., . . . Gaba, D. M. (2006). Improving alertness and performance in emergency department physicians and nurses: The use of planned naps. Annals of Emergency Medicine, 48(5), 596–604.

    354 年终时，管理层对他们表现的打分就会提高：Schwartz, T. (2013, February 10). Relax! You’ll be more productive. The New York Times, p. SR1.

    354 众所周知：Crowley, S. (2013, November 11). Perks of the dot-com culture [Video file]. 摘自 http:// www. myfoxny. com/。

    354 德勤……鼓励员工：CNN Money. (2013). Fortune: 100 best companies to work for. 摘自 http:// money. cnn. com/。

    354 模拟了一次军事演习：Streufert, S., Suedfeld, P., & Driver, M. J. (1965). Conceptual structure, information search, and information utilization. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2(5), 736.

    还可参见Streufert, S., & Driver, M. J. (1965). Conceptual structure, information load and perceptual complexity. Psychonomic Science 3(1), 249–250.

    356 根据最优信息理论：Streufert, S., & Schroder, H. M. (1965). Conceptual structure, environmental complexity and task performance. Journal of Experimental Research in Personality 1(2), 132–137.

    356 过多的信息反而会让消费者无法做出最佳决定：Jacoby, J. (1977). Information load and decision quality: Some contested issues. Journal of Marketing Research, 14(4), 569–573.

    Jacoby, J., Speller, D. E., & Berning, C. K. (1974). Brand choice behavior as a function of information load: Replication and extension. Journal of Consumer Research, 1(1), 33–42.

    Jacoby, J., Speller, D. E., & Kohn, C. A. (1974). Brand choice behavior as a function of information load. Journal of Marketing Research, 11(1), 63–69.

    356 购房决定：Malhotra, N. K. (1982). Information load and consumer decision-making. Journal of Consumer Research, 8(4), 419–430.

    357 信息的数量，他们可以做出更好的决定： Ariely, D. (2000). Controlling the information flow: Effects on consumers’ decision-making and preferences. Journal of Consumer Research, 27(2), 233–248.

    357 无关、无用信息： Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (Eds.). (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

    357 于20世纪40年代提出了信息理论： Shannon, C. E. (1948). A mathematical theory of communi-cation. The Bell System Technical Journal, 27, 379–423, 623–656.

    还可参见Cover, T. M., & Thomas, J. A. (2006). Elements of information theory (2nd ed.). New York, NY: Wiley-Interscience.

    Hartley, R. V. L. (1928). Transmission of information. The Bell System Technical Journal, 7(3), 535–563.

    Pierce, J. R. (1980) An introduction to information theory: Symbols, signals, and noise. New York, NY: Dover Publications.

    358 仅300~3300赫兹：Anderson, H., & Yull, S. (2002). BTEC nationals— IT practioners tutor resource pack. Oxford, UK: Newnes.

    359 另外两条信息，网格：比特计算取决于程序员输入的信息。这三条指令可能为

    shape[square]

    size[8]

    coloration[alternate].

    Or they could be

    horizontal size[8]

    vertical size[8]

    coloration[alternate].

    每种情况都需要三条指令，因此，在二进制计算中，是2比特（留有1比特的空余，因为2的平方等于4条信息）。

    360 下完一棋盘需要至少64条信息：用不到64条信息，我们就可以构建不同的布局，例如，开始布局，这可以用32条信息来指代32颗棋，然后用另外33条指令指示“其他方格都是空白”。

    361 信息理论可以应用于：在数学（拓扑分支）和计算机科学领域，完全向下分层业务组织结构图可以视为有向无环图（DAG）的一种特殊情况。DAG结构中，所有监管是向下循环，也就是说，无论在哪种情况下，下级都不可能监督上级；事实上，这正是大多数企业所采用的。然而，一个显示通信结构而非汇报结构的组织结构图一定也能显示其中的汇报结构。

    例如，参见 Bang-Jensen, J., & Gutin, G. (2007). Digraphs: Theory, algo-rithms and applications. Berlin, Germany: Springer-Verlag.

    Christofides, N. (1975). Graph theory: An algorithmic approach. New York, NY: Academic Press.

    Harary, F. (1994). Graph theory. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.

    362 只需2比特，我们就可以完全准确地描述这一组织结构图：362页的组织结构图可以用四个计算机指令表示，或者2比特表示：

    Structure[standard tree]

    Supervisees per supervisor[3]

    Levels-like-this[4]

    Supervisees per supervisor at last level[>= 50, <= 100]

    362 每一个元素都需要被单独描述：Kolmogorov, A. N. (1968). Three approaches to the quantitative definition of information. International Journal of Computer Mathematics 2(1–4), 157–168.

    Kolmogorov, A. (1963). On tables of random numbers. Sankhyā: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Series A 25(4), 369–375.

    364 计算出……结构（或组织）程度：我第一次看到这一概念是在 Hellerman, L. (2006). Representations of living forms. Biology and Philosophy, 21(4), 537–552.

    黑勒曼曾用它来量化生物实体中的组织度。对他而言，一个有组织的系统一定会涉及可微性。也就是，如果一个有机体的部分是可微的，那么我就可以说，它有更大的组织。一个单细胞有机体拥有最小的组织。

    他介绍了一个计算公式：

    Ni表示第 i部分的数量

    v表示信息理论角度的结构度

    lg表示对数基数2

    那么，v(n1, n2, . . . , nk)=n1lg(n/n1)+n2lg(n/n2)+. . .+nklg(n/nk)

    拥有可微部分的平实结构的组织值为0。

    完全纵向或者完全横向的结构拥有相同数量的信息，因为{0,8}={8,0}。所以当树的结构组织好的时候，就会有一个帕累托最优原则。

    366 工作流程图可以用同样的方法进行类似分析：摘自 Cardoso, J. (2006). Approaches to compute workflow complexity. In F. Leymann, W. Reisig, S. R. Thatte, & W. van der Aalst (Eds.), The role of business processes in service oriented architectures. IBFI: Schloss Dagstuhl, Germany.

    367 确保你能定位重要文档：Merrill, D. C., & Martin, J. A. (2010). Getting organized in the Google era: How to get stuff out of your head, find it when you need it, and get it done right. New York, NY: Crown Business.

    367 “当秘书在我的日历上新增一个会议的时候……”： Merrill, D. C., & Martin, J. A. (2010). Getting organized in the Google era: How to get stuff out of your head, find it when you need it, and get it done right. New York, NY: Crown Business, p. 161.

    368 截至撰写本文时，全球90％的数据： Pinheiro, E., Weber, W-D., & Barroso, L. A. (2007). Failure trends in a large disk drive population. Proceedings of the 5th USENIX Conference on File and Storage Technologies (FAST), Mountain View, CA. 摘自 http://static. googleusercontent. com/ media/ research. google . com/ en// archive/ disk_ failures. Pdf

    368 15摄氏度的温度变化都可能让故障率增加一倍： Cole, G. (2000). Estimating drive reliability in desktop computers and consumer electronics systems. Seagate Technology Paper TP-338. 1.

    369 驱动器5年内出现故障的概率：Schroeder & Gibson found failure rates in real installations of up to 13% per year. Application of the binomial theorem yields a 50% probability of at least one failure within five years.

    Schroeder, B., & Gibson, G. A. (2007). Disk failures in the real world: What does an MTTF of 1,000,000 hours mean to you? Proceedings of the 5th USENIX Confer-ence on File and Storage Technologies (FAST), Mountain View, CA. 摘自 http:// www. pdl. cmu. edu/ ftp/ Failure/ failure-fast07. Pdf

    He, Z., Yang, H., & Xie, M. (2012, October). Statistical modeling and analysis of hard disk drives (HDDs) failure. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers APMRC, pp. 1–2.

    369 会在两年内出现磁盘故障：Vishwanath, K. V., & Nagappan, N. . Characterizing cloud computing hardware reliability. In Proceedings of the 1st ACM symposium on cloud computing. New York, NY: ACM (pp. 193–204).

    370 “……除夕之后的五彩纸屑一样分散在各处”：Boutin, P. (2013, December 12). An app that will never forget a file. The New York Times, p. B7.

    第8章

    379 这一说法源自：Sanger, L. (2004, December 31). Why Wikipedia must jettison its anti-elitism. Kuro5hin. 摘自 http:// www .kuro5hin. Org。

    维基百科中包含了一篇名叫“Criticism of Wikipedia”的文章，我们都可以理解这篇文章对维基百科自身的偏袒。

    Criticism of Wikipedia. (n. d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved March 19, 2014, from http:// en. wikipedia. org/ wiki/ Criticism of Wikipedia

    379 吉米·威尔士指出: User: Jimbo Wales. (n. d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved June 30, 2013, from http:// en. wikipedia. org/ wiki/ User:Jimbo_ Wales

    381 “专家为什么会愿意……”：Dharma. (December 30, 2004). Comment on Sanger, L. (2004, December 31). Why Wikipedia must jettison its anti-elitism [Online forum comment]. 摘自 http:// www. kuro5hin. Org。

    382 这一切都始于《星际迷航》的忠实粉丝：Jenkins, H. (1992). Textual poachers: Television fans and participatory culture. New York, NY: Routledge.

    Schulz, N. (n. d.). Fan fiction— TV viewers have it their way: Year in review 2001. In Encyclopedia Britannica online.

    383 当音乐掌门人比尔·格雷厄姆：Graham, B., 个人交流，1983年10月，旧金山。

    383 当然，正如我们所详述的那样，维基百科的免费性：既然有如此多的问题，你一定会开始思考，维基百科会出现雇用专业编辑、专业作家的竞争对手。事实上，真的有这样的对手， 拉里·桑格创建了 Citizendium。不幸的是，它没能与维基百科相提并论，最终只能挣扎着前行。

    383 华盛顿特区史密森尼美国艺术博物馆：Cohen, P. (2013, July 27). Museum welcomes Wikipedia editors. The New York Times, p. C1.

    384 正如《纽约客》散文作家: Gopnik, A. (2013, May).麦克吉尔大学毕业典礼上的演讲，蒙特利尔。

    385 有组织的、谨慎的： Friedman, H. S., Tucker, J. S., Schwartz, J. E., Martin, L. R., Tomlinson-Keasey, C., Wingard, D. L., & Criqui, M. H. (1995). Childhood conscientiousness and longevity: Health behaviors and cause of death. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68(4), 696–703.

    Friedman, H. S., Tucker, J. S., Tomlinson-Keasey, C., Schwartz, J. E., Wingard, D. L., & Criqui, M. H. (1993). Does childhood personality predict longevity? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65(1), 176–185.

    385 已经变得比以往任何时候都更加迫切：Goldberg, L. R., 个人交流, 2013年4月13日。

    Gurven, M., von Rueden, C., Massenkoff, M., Kaplan, H., & Lero Vie, M. (2013). How universal is the Big Five? Testing the five-factor model of personality variation among forager-farmers in the Bolivian Amazon. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 104(2), 354–370.

    386 这些困难的出现有两大原因：Beckman, M. (2004). Crime, culpability, and the adolescent brain. Science, 305(5684), 596–599.

    Giedd, J. N., Blumenthal, J., Jeffries, N. O., Castellanos, F. X., Liu, H., Zijdenbos, A., . . . Rapoport, J. L. (1999). Brain development during childhood and adolescence: A longitudinal MRI study. Nature Neuroscience, 2(10), 861–863.

    Sowell, E. R., Thompson, P. M., & Toga, A. W. (2004). Mapping changes in the human cortex throughout the span of life. The Neuroscientist, 10(4), 372–392.

    Steinberg, L. (2004). Risk taking in adolescence: What changes, and why? Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1021(1), 51–58.

    386 “先吃青蛙。每天早上先完成不愉快的事情……”：Eberts, A., 个人交流，2013年11月26日，蒙特利尔。

    388 甚至有些是有人故意策划的： Keller, B. (2013年11月 4日). It’s the golden age of news. The New York Times, p. A25. 我的观点与凯勒的很接近：“社交媒体的涌流也带来了各种错误的信息（有些是故意的），以及各种矛盾。”

    388 “社交媒体并不是新闻……”：Keller, B. (2013, November 4). It’s the golden age of news. The New York Times, p. A25. [Emphasis mine.]

    389 新闻报道中的政治和意识形态偏见：Vallone, R. P., Ross, L., & Lepper, M. R. (1985). The hostile media phenomenon: Biased perception and perceptions of media bias in coverage of the Beirut Massacre. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49(3), 577–585.

    390 亚里士多德、西塞罗、约瑟夫斯和普鲁塔克都：Murray, O. (1972). Herodotus and Hellenistic culture. The Classical Quarterly, 22(2), 200–213.

    Sparks, K. L. (Ed.). (1998). Ethnicity and identity in ancient Israel: Prolegomena to the study of ethnic sentiments and their expression in the Hebrew Bible. War-saw, IN: Eisenbrauns.

    另一种观点参见Lateiner, D. (1989). The historical method of Herodotus (Vol. 23). Toronto, ON: University of Toronto Press.

    390 偏见有许多种形式：Nelson, R. A. (2003). Tracking propaganda to the source: Tools for analyzing media bias. Global Media Journal, 2(3), Article 9.

    391 图书管理员和其他信息专家：Georgetown University. (2014). Evaluating Internet resources. 摘自 http:// www. library. georgetown. edu / tutorials/ research-guides/ evaluating-internet-content

    University of California, Berkeley. (2012, August 5). Evaluating web pages: Techniques to apply and questions to ask. 摘自 http:// www. lib. berkeley . edu/ TeachingLib/ Guides/ Internet/ Evaluate. html

    391 (美国国家航空航天局提供的指南……)：NASA. (n. d.). Evaluating and validating information sources, including web sites. 摘自 http:// wiki. nasa. gov/ federal -knowledge-management-working-group-kmwg/ wiki/ home/ z-archives-legacy -content/ federal-cio-council-where-technology-meets-human-creativity-2002 / f-information-literacy/ f-5-tutorial-evaluating-information/ f-5c-tutorial -evaluating-and-validating-information-sources-including-web-sites/

    391 这些页面仅仅只是意见吗？……夸大？：直接引自加利福尼亚大学伯克利。（2012，8月5日）。Evaluating web pages: Techniques to apply and questions to ask. 摘自 http:// www. lib. berkeley. edu/ TeachingLib / Guides/ Internet/ Evaluate. Html。

    网站的本质是任何人都可以从网站复制东西，然后粘贴至别处。一个复制过来的文章在某个搜索引擎上可能会成为新的文章，因为对某个特定网站而言，它是新的，但这并不意味着它本身是新的。陈旧过时的信息可以轻易地伪装成新的信息。网站上并不会总是会出现日期，所以，我们很容易遇到陈旧过时的消息。你看到的可能是过时的数据、回收的信息，或者你根本就不感兴趣的信息。重新发布文章，这一过程有时可能会改变一些关键信息；不要以为所有重新发布的文章都是未经更改的。

    Wayback 机器是一种识别更改过的文章的工具（以20世纪50年代和60年代的《天才眼镜狗》的动画片命名 ）。 Wayback机器包含不同时期万维网的快照。这些快照并不是连续的——它会不定期给出快照——但这可以让我们知道某个网站过去是怎样的，以此探究并验证信息。出自 www. http:// webarchive.org。 当某个网页的信息的内容被更改时， Wayback机器相关的服务就会提醒你，例如 http://www.watchthatpage.com/。

    网页的域名又是什么呢？就像早期的西部一样，这里有城市好的一面，也有荒芜的一面。官方和经过验证的政府网站，通常都有特殊标志：gov代表美国（联邦，州，地方）， .gc.ca代表加拿大,.gov.uk代表英国（中央和地方）。其他官方扩展包括.mil（美国军队）。美国以.gov域名结尾的网站还可以细分。每个州都有自己的二级域名（例如，.colorado.gov,. nebraska.gov），包括一些网站（例如， nyc.gov, burlingtonvt.gov）和一些公立学校（威斯敏斯特，加利福尼亚州，网站为 wsd. k12.ca.us；达拉斯县公立学校为dallascountytexas.us）。更为复杂的是，一些官方政府网站还使用了一些其他域名，这让我们更难甄别。例如，芝加哥网站（www.cityofchicago.org），以及麦迪逊网站（www.cityofmadison.com）。在这些情况下，你不能依靠域名来验证网站，下面我们将介绍一些其他的办法。

    在美国，受认可的高等教育机构（学院、大学等）可以申请.edu域名。这些都是由一个名叫Educause的非营利组织管理。该机构已经与美国商务部达成了某种协议。但系统还不完善，一些野鸡大学和其他令人讨厌的机构也已经混进了这一系统。详见U. S. Department of Education. (n. d.). Diploma mills and accreditation— diploma mills. 摘自http://www2.ed.gov/students/prep/college/diplomamills/diploma-mills.Html。.com (商用)也许是最常见的域名，美国政府网站以及一些跨国公司都会使用这种域名。我们很容易甄别这些网站的身份。如果你想知道某个药品的生产信息， Pfizer. com就是公司网站，而 Pfizer.info可能是也可能不是公司网站。仔细看看URL. www . ChaseBank. verify.com，www.Microsoft.Software.com 也许不是这些公司的官网，因为公司的名字在 URL内——真正关键的是.com之前的公司的名字（在这种情况下，verify.com以及 software.com为网站供应商, 这与微软和大通银行不一样）。

    不同的国家都有自己的域名，许多情况下，许多国内的网站，无论政府还是非政府的，都会使用这样的域名。[http://www.domainit.com/domains/country-domains.mhtml]. 这其中包括，.ch (瑞士), .cn (中国), .de (德国), .fr (法国), 和 .jp (日本)。这还可以进一步细分，例如 .ac.uk 以及.ac.jp为学术机构，以及一些拥有解释权的.judiciary.uk, .parliament.uk, 以及.police.uk。

    网站的域名是什么？它的渠道合适吗？ IRS.com 以及 InternalRevenue.com 都不是美国的官方机构，因为它们没有.gov的后缀（尽管网站表面看起来很官方）。骗子很容易就能创建出一个看起来像官网的网站页面。

    访问networksolutions.com，我们就可以轻松地获得网站的注册信息。例如，如果你需要查询Ford. Com，你会得到一个表明网站主人的结果：

    Ford Motor Company

    20600 Rotunda Drive ECC Building

    Dearborn MI 48121

    US

    dnsmgr@FORD. COM+1. 3133903476 Fax:+1. 3133905011

    这就是真正的福特汽车公司（你可以使用搜索引擎验证地址）。（也有可能，黑客已经入侵了Ford. Com，将错误的信息传在了官网上。但我们都有常识：如果网站内容看起来很奇怪的话，请用传统方式联系公司，将你看到的放入新的网络网站，或者只是等待——通常，网站自己的技术人员能够在几个小时或者几天内处理完成问题。）

    它究竟是一个人的个人主页，还是一个专业机构网站呢？如果你对某个网页不熟悉，请试着了解网站背后的人。找找“关于我们”，或者任何其他能够表明网站可信度、网站文化、网站政治观点的链接。从中，我们可以看到网站的专业度与偏见。作者有相关资质或者知识发表某些观点吗？一个反对水力压裂法的宗教组织可能没有资质发表与环境、建筑相关的看法；美国咖啡进口协会可能无法提供关于绿茶有利身体健康方面的资讯。业余爱好者可能是狂热分子，拥有同样的权威，但这并不意味着他们真的就是可信的专家。

    有信誉的网站会链接到这个网页吗？你可以使用Alexa. com得到答案。将你感兴趣的链接输入Alexa搜索框，或者单词连接后加上URL，再输入搜索引擎。你可以缩小你的表单，只显示来自某些特殊域名的网站，例如 . 加上Site：edu就可以缩小至edu或者 gov。因此，如果你需要知道美国击剑协会 (www. usfa. org)来自政府的资源链接时，你可以输入 link:usfa. org site:. gov。

    391 收费伪学术： Kolata, G. (2013, April 8). Scientific articles accepted (personal checks, too). The New York Times, p. A1.

    391 “大多数人都不了解新闻世界……”：摘自Kolata, G. (2013, April 8). Scientific articles accepted (personal checks, too). The New York Times, p. A1.

    391 开放期刊：Beall, J. (2012). Predatory publishers are corrupting open access. Nature, 489 (7415), 179.

    Scholarly Open Access. (n. d.). Beall’s list: Potential, possible, or probably predatory scholarly open-access publishers. 摘自 http:// scholarlyoa. com / publishers/。

    392 “于1995年成立的医药厂商……” ：RxList. (2013, November 20). About RxList. 摘自 http:// www. rxlist. com/ script/ main/ art. asp? articlekey= 64467。

    392 根据Alexa：这一信息截至本书撰写时。本书出版时，这一信息肯定会有所变化。Alexa.

    (n. d.). How popular is rxlist. com? 摘自 http:// www. alexa. com/ siteinfo/ rxlist. com#trafficstats。

    392 如果点进该链接：rainbow05 (U14629301). (2010, October 26). Morphine/ Butrans patches [Online forum comment]. Retrieved March 30, 2014, from http:// www. bbc. co. uk/ ouch/ messageboards/ NF2322273? thread= 7841114

    392 在谷歌上搜索与RxList.com有关的政府网站：搜索词目是Link: rxlist. com site:. gov.

    393其中第一个报道链接：Graham, D. (1996, December). Scientific cybernauts: Tips for clinical medicine resources on the Internet. 摘自 http:// www. nih. gov/ catalyst/ back/ 96. 11/ cybernaut. html

    397 奖金仍在托管账户中FFreeThinker. (2012, May 23). James Randi and the one million dollar paranormal challenge [Video file]. 摘自 http:// www. youtube. com/ watch? v= 4Ja6ronAWsY。

    James Randi Educational Foundation. (2014). One million dollar paranormal challenge. 摘自 http:// www. randi. org/ site/ index. php/ 1m-challenge.html。

    The Skeptic’s Dictionary. (2013, December 29). Randi $1,000,000 paranormal challenge. 摘自 http:// skepdic. com/ randi. html。

    397 “如果精神力量真的存在，那他们是顽皮的……”：罗斯, L., 个人交流，1991年2月。

    398 延长寿命：Thomas, D. R. (2006). Vitamins in aging, health, and longevity. Clinical Interventions in Aging, 1(1), 81–91.

    398 (碰巧的是……相关证据)：Ebbing, M., & Vollset, S. E. (2013). Long-term supplementation with multivitamins and minerals did not improve male US physicians’ cardiovascular health or prolong their lives. Evidence Based Medicine, 18(6), 218–219.

    398 海盗的数量下降是由全球气候变暖造成的：堪萨斯州学校董事会公开信。图表：全球平均温度和海盗数量(n. d.). 摘自 http:// www. venganza. org/ about/ open-letter/。

    400 90%的肺癌出现在吸烟者身上： 疾病预防与控制中心，(2013年11月21日)，肺癌，摘自 http:// www. cdc. gov / cancer/ lung/ basic info/ risk factors. htm。

    400 遭受吸烟损害的肺组织中存在有毒化学物质：疾病预防与控制中心，(2013年11月21日)， 肺癌，摘自 http:// www. cdc. gov / cancer/ lung/ basic info/ risk factors. htm。

    401 更倾向于吸烟：Eysenck, H. J. (1988). Personality, stress and cancer: Prediction and prophylaxis. British Journal of Medical Psychology, 61(1), 57–75.

    Eysenck, H. J., Grossarth-Maticek, R., & Everitt, B. (1991). Personality, stress, smoking, and genetic predisposition as synergistic risk factors for cancer and coronary heart disease. Integrative Physiological and Behavioral Science, 26(4), 309–322.

    401 丹佛郊区的儿童白血病的发病率比美国其他地区：Fulton, J. P., Cobb, S., Preble, L., Leone, L., & Forman, E. (1980). Electrical wiring configurations and childhood leukemia in Rhode Island. American Journal of Epidemiology, 111(3), 292–296.

    Savitz, D. A., Pearce, N. E., & Poole, C. (1989). Methodological issues in the epidemiology of electromagnetic fields and cancer. Epidemiologic Reviews, 11(1), 59–78.

    Wertheimer, N., & Leeper, E. D. (1982). Adult cancer related to electrical wires near the home. International Journal of Epidemiology, 11(4), 345–355.

    401 鱼油，由于富含ω-3脂肪酸：Kris-Etherton, P. M., Harris, W. S., & Appel, L. J. (2002). AHA scientific statement: Fish consumption, fish oil, omega-3 fatty acids, and cardiovascular disease. Circulation, 106(21), 2747–2757.

    402 鱼油的功效：Kromhout, D., Yasuda, S., Geleijnse, J. M., & Shimokawa, H. (2012). Fish oil and omega-3 fatty acids in cardiovascular disease: Do they really work? European Heart Journal, 33(4), 436–443.

    402 2013年夏，研究者们： Brasky, T. M., Darke, A. K., Song, X., Tangen, C. M., Goodman, P. J., Thompson, I. M., . . . Kristal, A. R. (2013). Plasma phospholipid fatty acids and prostate cancer risk in the SELECT trial. Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 105(15), 1132–1141.

    402 他还经营着一个网站——销售ω-3胶囊：Dr. Hyman. (n. d.). Search results: Omega 3. 摘自 http:// store. drhyman. com/ Store/ Search? Terms= omega+ 3。

    402 他对血液样品分析的方式存在疑虑：Hyman, M. (2013, July 26). Can fish oil cause prostate cancer? Huffington Post. 摘自 http:// www. huffingtonpost . com/ dr-mark-hyman/ omega-3s-prostate-cancer b 3659735. html。

    403 无独有偶，美国心脏协会：American Heart Association. (n.d.). Fish 101. 摘自 http:// www. heart. org/。

    403 大豆可以预防前列腺癌：Yan, L., & Spitznagel, E. L. (2009). Soy consumption and prostate cancer risk in men: A revisit of a meta-analysis. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 89(4), 1155–1163.

    403 降低癌症的复发概率： Bosland, M. C., Kato, I., Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, A., Schmoll, J., Rueter, E. E., Melamed, J., . . . Davies, J. A. (2013). Effect of soy protein isolate supplementation on biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy. JAMA, 310(2), 170–178.

    403 我们必须做出一定的选择：批判性思维的一方会问，信息是合理的吗？

    1984年，弗雷德·桑福德，一位来自中西部的不知名业余作曲家，起诉哥伦比亚唱片公司，声称迈克尔·杰克逊/保罗·麦卡特尼主打歌“The Girl Is Mine”抄袭了他的作品。怎么可能我们时代最著名、最成功的两位作曲家会从别人那里剽窃一首歌？或者一个完全不知名的没出过任何唱片的业余歌手能够写出一只国际知名的单曲？迈克尔·杰克逊怎么可能听到过桑福德的版本？这些都不合理，也不可能。但这并不能证明“The Girl Is Mine”就不是剽窃过来的，我们需要权衡事实，考虑所有的可能性。弗雷德最终败诉。

    合理性取决于具体的环境。如果有人丢失了一串名贵的、安保系数极高的珠宝，然后她声称“一定被人偷了”，那么，这可能就是不合理的，尤其当她负债累累，家里没有任何强行进入的痕迹，安保摄像机也没有发现任何入侵的迹象的时候。

    保守派议员担心未婚妈妈生育孩子只是为了可以得到政府的现金福利。一份报道这项法律生效的报纸否认了这样的好处，并指出，6个月内的出生率已经大幅下降。这种观点本身是合理的——出生率的上升和下降取决于多种因素——但认为出生率的下降是由于法律的颁布，这种观点就是不合理的，因为怀孕到生产还需要9个月的时间。

    404 根据NBA官方资料，奥尼尔的身高为7.1英尺： NBA. (n. d.). Shaquille O’Neal. 摘自 http:// stats. nba. com/ playerProfile. html? PlayerID= 406

    历史上最高的NBA球员马努特·波尔以及格奥尔格·穆雷桑身高都为7.7英尺。

    Brown, D. H. (2007). A basketball handbook. Bloomington, IN: AuthorHouse, p. 20.

    407 过去的10年中，谷歌： Carlson, N. (2009, November 5). Answers to 15 Google interview questions that will make you feel stupid. Business Insider.

    Fateman, R., 计算机科学/ EECS教授 (已退休), 加州大学伯克利分校，个人交流。2013年1月13日。

    408 帝国大厦的实际重量是多少？：Carlson, N. (2009, November 5) Answers to 15 Google interview questions that will make you feel stupid. Business Insider.

    Fateman, R., 计算机科学/ EECS教授 (已退休), 加州大学伯克利分校，个人交流。2013年1月13日。

    414 一立方英尺木头的重量为50磅：一立方英尺的枫木实际重量为44磅。Reade Advanced Materials. (2006, January 11). Weight per cubic foot and specific gravity. 摘自 http:// www. reade. com/ Particle Briefings/ spec gra2. html。

    414 钢筋的重量大约为木头的10倍： 一立方英尺的钢实际重量为490磅。Reade Advanced Materials. (2006, January 11). Weight per cubic foot and specific gravity. 摘自 http:// www. reade. com/ Particle Briefings/ spec gra2. html。

    416 结果为36.5万吨： esbnyc.com, 帝国大厦官网。

    416 “……帝国大厦的重量就是……重量” ：匿名，个人交流，2012年4月6日。

    417 做这个游戏时的一些场景： Ackerman, D. (2012). One hundred names for love. New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Company, pp. 82–83.

    418 “当你犯错的时候，你应该告诉你自己，这太有趣了……”：Zander, B.， 个人交流, 2013年7月25日。

    419 学生必须学会主动：美国图书馆协会，大学及研究图书馆协会（1989）. Presidential committee on information literacy: Final report. 摘自 www. ala. org/ ala/ mgrps/ divs / acrl/ publications/ whitepapers/ presidential. cfm。

    还可参见Mackey, T. P., & Jacobson, T. E. (2011). Reframing information literacy as metaliteracy. College & Research Libraries, 72(1), 62–78.

    419 “‘知道’是其他信仰所无法替代的”： Kahneman, D., 个人交流，2013年7月10日，加拿大，斯坦福。

    420 艾瑞克·马祖尔在其：Peer Instruction Mazur, E. (1996). Peer instruction: A user’s manual. New York, NY: Pearson.

    421 快速呈现的事件……吸引： 直接摘自 Lillard, A. S., & Peterson, J. (2011). The immediate impact of different types of television on young children’s executive function. Pediatrics, 128(4), 644–649. 摘自 http:// pediatrics. aappublications. org/ content/ early/ 2011/ 09/ 08/ peds. 2010-1919. full. pdf+html

    421 慢节奏的公共电视卡通节目：Caillou Tanner, L. (2011, December 9). SpongeBob SquarePants causes attention problems: Study. Huffington Post. 摘自 http:// www. huffingtonpost. com/。

    422 《海绵宝宝》专为6~11岁的孩子：出自尼克国际儿童频道的发言人戴维·比特勒：

    Tanner, L. (2011, December 9). SpongeBob SquarePants causes attention problems: Study. Huffington Post. 摘自 http:// www. huffingtonpost. com/。

    第9章

    424 组织也给了我们适当混乱的自由：Merrill, D. C., & Martin, J. A. (2011). Getting organized in the Google era: How to stay efficient, productive (and sane) in an information-saturated world. New York, NY: Random House.

    425 美国州际公路系统：公路政策信息办公室 (2011). Table HM-20: Public Road Length—2010 (Report). U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration.

    425 从南至北，偶数增加：这与旧的美国公路系统的规律相反，所以很多人感到困惑。人类交互设计的基本原则是，如果一个标准存在，那么就应该使用它。

    Norman, D. A. (2013). The design of everyday things. New York, NY: Basic Books

    426 在纽约州，1—87是主要的南北走向国道：地图摘自维基百科，域名为公共域名，http:// en. wikipedia. org/ wiki/ Inter state Highway System# cite note-hm20-2 。地图的使用已经征得创建者Stratosphere的同意. http:// en. wikipedia. org/ wiki/ File:FHWA Auxil iary Route Numbering_ Diagram. svg

    427元素周期表：元素周期表摘自必应 http:// 0. tqn. com/ d/ chemistry/1/0/1/W/ periodictable. jpg and tagged as “Public Domain— Free to Use” .

    在元素周期表的第6和第7行，钡和镭的右边，表的结构得到分解。第3列原本应该只有一个元素，但在第4列，铪与炉之前有15种元素挤在一起。越往下，原子越大，越重。当它们达到一定的最小临界尺寸和重量，电子轨道倾向于围绕钡（原子量= 56）开始变得稳定起来。因此，有必要增加电子方案，F轨道。也就是说，周期表的不连续是由于电子轨道差异的存在。我们有必要对它们进行进一步分类，因为这些元素之间拥有大量的化学相似性。第6行为镧系元素（稀土金属），第7行为锕系元素（放射性元素）。

    感谢玛丽·安·怀特博士的讲解。玛丽·安·怀特，个人交流，2013年10月16日。

    429 相似的名字与新的脸庞联系起来：记忆名字如此困难的原因在于，名字的数量是有限的，但面孔的数量几乎是无限的。我们没有很好的描述并记忆它们的方法。记忆面孔往往会比基于特征更全面。如果你需要描述一张特定的脸，你可能会说，“她有一个上翘的鼻子，下巴上有酒窝，眉毛很细”，但你大脑所记住的一定不是这些特征描述；相反，你可能会想象面部整体，然后尝试描述出这些特点。

    429如果你遇见了一个名叫Adiel （发音为“A deal”）的人： 希腊人记录了很多你从未听说过的记忆名字的方法，希腊人对记忆有着很深的认识——他们需要这样做，因为很多古代知识都是口头相传的。

    430 约翰·列侬在回忆： Sheff, D. (2000). All we are saying: The last major interview with John Lennon and Yoko Ono. New York, NY: St. Martin’s Press.

    430 在梦中：James Watson. (2005, February). James Watson: How we discovered DNA [Video file]. 摘自 http:// www. ted. com/ talks/ james watson on how he discovered dna。

    Kaempffert, W. (Ed.). (1924). A popular history of American invention (Vol. 2). New York, NY: Scribner’s Sons.

    430 《查拉图斯特拉如是说》三部曲：Cybulska, E. M. (2000). The madness of Nietzsche: A misdia-gnosis of the millennium? British Journal of Hospital Medicine, 61(8), 571–575.

    430 “作家都很好奇想法来自哪儿……”：Robinson, M. (2013, November 17). The believer. Review of A Prayer Journal by F. O’Connor. The New York Times Book Review, p. 11.

    431 “这不是我创作的”：Hospers, J. (1985). Artistic creativity. The Journal of Aesthetics and Art Criticism, 43(3), 243–255.

    431 运用中央执行模式解决问题：Claxton, G. (1999). Hare brain, tortoise mind: How intelligence increases when you think less. New York, NY: Harper Perennial.

    Gediman, P., & Zaleski, J. (1999, January, 11). [Review of the book Hare brain, tortoise mind: How intelligence increases when you think less by Guy Claxton]. Publisher’s Weekly, 246(2), p. 63.

    431 所有比特都是平等的：写完本书之后，我在以下书中发现了完全相同的说法：Gleick, J. (2011). The information: A history, a theory, a flood. New York, NY: Vintage.

    431 因此，信息与意义是分离的：格雷克写道“信息已经与意义分离”。他引用了技术专家刘易斯·芒福德在1970年所写的一段话：

    “不幸的是，无论信息检索有多快速，它都无法替代我们固有的知识，也许我们不曾意识到自己领悟到的知识。它也按照自己的步调搜索其他相关文献。”

    Gleick, J. (2011). The information: A history, a theory, a flood. New York, NY: Vintage.

    432 “媒介也很重要……”：Carr, N. (2010). The shallows: What the internet is doing to our brains. New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Company.

    432 “信息太多了，太多信息都被我们忽视了”：Gleick, J. (2011). The information: A history, a theory, a flood. New York, NY: Vintage.

    435 “伟大的科学家也是艺术家”：Calaprice, A. (Ed.). (2000). The expanded quotable Einstein. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, p. 245.

    Root-Bernstein, M., & Root-Bernstein, R. (2010, March 31). Einstein on creative thinking: Music and the intuitive art of scientific imagination. Psychology Today.

    436 “当我来到英特尔的时候……”：Otellini, P., 个人交流，2013年7月。

    438 Reddit网站的海报：Baez, J. (2013, September 29). Levels of excellence [Weblog]. 摘自 http://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/levels-of-excellence/。